The anticipated rainfall patterns, as indicated by various models, reveal a heightened severity of conditions throughout the region. Specifically, Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, and Timor-Leste stand out as countries in the Asia-Pacific region showing signs of potential immediate concern over the next three months. These three nations are historically susceptible to the effects of El Niño and IOD declarations. Furthermore, the Philippines has recently joined this list, as it is now exhibiting notable indications of below-average rainfall conditions expected in the upcoming months.
As of 19 September, all four major forecasters have now declared the El Nino event.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) was the most recent to upgrade their El Niño Alert to an official El Niño State declaration. Oceanic indicators are providing strong evidence of the presence of El Niño conditions. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean consistently surpass the established El Niño thresholds. Furthermore, climate models indicate a continued warming trend in the central to eastern Pacific, further strengthening the likelihood that this El Niño event will be categorized as strong.
At the same time, the presence of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has been verified, and all models indicate that this positive IOD is expected to continue at least until the end of December. When a positive IOD coincides with El Niño, their combined drying impact tends to be more potent and widespread across the Indo-Pacific region.
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