For the thirtieth (30 th) week of 2021, a total of 9 disasters (5 floods, 1 landslide, 2 storms, and 1 wind-related) affected the region. Myanmar, Thailand, The Philippines, and Indonesia have reportedly been affected. The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) of Myanmar reported flooding in Kayin, Mon, and Rakhine states. Heavy rainfall and the overflowing of the Mei River caused flooding in Tak, Thailand according to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM). The National Disaster Risk Reduction of Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines reported that the Southwest Monsoon has caused flooding, landslides, storms, and wind in multiple regions. Meanwhile, high-intensity rainfall and the overflowing of rivers flooded areas in Banten and West Java in Indonesia as reported by the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB).
The NDRRMC reported that the Southwest Monsoon has affected Regions 3, 8, 9, MIMAROPA, CAR, and NCR of the Philippines. A total of 236 areas were reported to have been flooded, 33 of which have already subsided and 26 already receding. Four (4) rain-induced landslides were also reported. The Southwest Monsoon has affected 179.3K families (613.5K persons) in 610 barangays, displaced 40.8K people into 137 evacuation centres and their friends and relative’s homes with 1 reported missing person. A total of 289 houses were damaged (248 partially, 41 totally). Around 6.8M USD worth of damages to agriculture and 721K USD to infrastructure were also reported. Assistance amounting to 27.7K USD have been provided to victims in Region 3, MIMAROPA, and CAR. Situation assessment and monitoring and coordination between relevant authorities are continuously on-going for any developments.
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed noticeable high 7-day average rainfall in Southern Myanmar, and Western Luzon of the Philippines as effects of the Southwest Monsoon as reported by the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of Myanmar. The JTWC detected three disturbances 96W, 97W, and 98W with high, low, and high chances to develop into a significant tropical cyclone within 24 hours, respectively. 96W is forecast to head northeastward and 98W north-northeastward. No forecast for 97W’s path and intensity.
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) and Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH). Sinabung and Ili Lewotolok in Indonesia (alert level III) and Taal Volcano in the Philippines (alert level 2) reported recent volcanic activity and are under close monitoring. Volcanic activity was also reported for Mount Semeru, Dukono, and Ibu in Indonesia according to Pusat Vulkanologi Dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
According to the ASMC, drier conditions are expected over much of the northern ASEAN region; wetter conditions are expected over much of the Southern and Western Maritime Continent; warmer conditions are expected over much of the ASEAN region. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in North and Western parts of Sumatra, and the Southern Maritime Continent; a small increase in chance for extended dry conditions to occur in Central and Eastern parts of Thailand and Viet Nam, and the Philippines; a moderate increase in chance in Southern Maritime Continent and a small increase in chance for the rest of the Maritime Continent for extreme hot conditions.