Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Maize and paddy production estimated above average in 2024
- Cereal import requirements anticipated 7 percent above average in 2024 marketing year (January/December)
- Food inflation remained stable in last quarter of 2024
Maize and paddy production estimated above average in 2024
Harvesting of the paddy crop takes place throughout the year, with nearly half of its output concentrated during the April‑July period. Paddy production up to end-October 2024 is estimated at the above-average level of 3.06 million tonnes, reflecting large plantings due to higher year‑on‑year prices in the first half of the year. Adequate rainfall amounts in the key producing northern regions of San Martin, Piura and Loreto, that account for about half of the total annual production, provided conducive conditions during planting and growing stages, with a positive impact on crop yields. In the third quarter of the year, dry weather conditions across the country curbed farmers’ sowing intentions, resulting in a reduction of planted area. However, annual paddy production in 2024 is preliminarily estimated to remain above average. Weather forecasts for the first trimester of 2025 point to conducive conditions across the country, except for northern coastal areas of Piura and Lambayeque, where shortages of water irrigation due to low precipitation amounts and high temperatures are likely to restrain crop development.
Yellow maize for feed use is harvested all year round and nearly half of the annual production is concentrated in the June‑September period. The output harvested from January to October 2024 is estimated at 1.14 million tonnes, about 8 percent above the previous five-year average, on account of adequate rainfall amounts in the first half of the year, that boosted crop yields. Planted area is reported at a near-average level, with most of the sowings concentrated in northern regions of San Martin, Cajamarca and Loreto as well as in the coastal Ica area. Dryness and high temperatures are forecast in January and February 2025 in northern coastal and the northwestern rainforest selva regions, likely curbing 2025 crop yields.
Harvesting of white maize for food use was completed in August 2024. Production of the first ten months of 2024 is estimated at 373 000 tonnes, about 17 percent above the previous five‑year average. Despite a below‑average planted area, favourable precipitation amounts in key southern producing highlands of Cusco Region as well as in the northern Cajamarca area in the first quarter of the year provided optimal conditions for crop development, bolstering crop yields.
Cereal import requirements anticipated 7 percent above average in 2024 marketing year (January/December)
Cereal import requirements in the 2024 marketing year (January/December) are estimated at 6.6 million tonnes, about 7 percent above the previous five‑year average. The increase derives from the higher year‑on‑year import demand for yellow maize for feed use, reflecting the recovery of the poultry production from the second quarter of 2024 onwards, following a year‑on‑year contraction in the first three months of the year.
The government increased import tariffs on rice and maize at the end of October 2024 and this measure is expected to reduce the country’s capacity to import during the 2025 marketing year.
Food inflation remained stable in last quarter of 2024
Food inflation remained slightly below zero from April to September 2024 and returned positive in the last quarter of the year, despite near to zero. Food prices were lower year‑on‑year in December 2023, reflecting a larger market supply and low oil prices.