Paraguay

GIEWS Country Brief: Paraguay 19-April-2022

Attachments

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Favourable production prospects for 2022 main season maize crop

  • Cereal production in 2021 estimated at below‑average level

  • Exports of cereals in 2021/22 anticipated at low levels

  • Prices of yellow maize well above year‑earlier levels in March

Favourable production prospects for 2022 main season maize crop

The 2022 main season maize crop is currently at flowering and grain‑filling stages. According to satellite imagery, crop conditions were favourable in the main producing departments of Alto Paraná and Canindeyú (green areas in NDVI anomaly map), which presents a significant improvement compared to February. Abundant precipitations in March and the first dekad of April boosted soil moisture levels and supported crop development. The planted area is officially estimated at an above‑average level as a result of the expansion of maize sowings by farmers that experienced crop losses in the precedent soybean season.

The 2022 main season maize crop was harvested between December 2021 and January 2022 and production is estimated at a below‑average level owing to severe and prolonged dry spells between the November 2021 and January 2022 period.

Dry weather conditions also resulted in below‑average yields of the 2022 paddy crop production of which is officially estimated at 860 000 tonnes, more than 10 percent below the five‑year average.

Cereal production in 2021 estimated at below‑average level

Cereal output in 2021 is officially estimated at 5.8 million tonnes, about 20 percent below the previous five‑year average. The sharp reduction in production reflects the adverse impact of prolonged dry weather conditions that reduced planted area and lowered yields of the main maize crop. Cold snaps in June 2021 severely affected wheat, production of which was 30 percent below the five‑year average.

Exports of cereals in 2021/22 anticipated at low levels

Cereal exports in the 2021/22 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at low levels of 2.6 million tonnes, owing to a sharp decline in exportable surplus of maize in 2021. Imports of maize were at an all‑time high between July 2021 and January 2022 aiming at increasing domestic supplies.

Prices of yellow maize well above year‑earlier levels in March

After an upsurge during the second quarter of 2021 due to tight market supplies, prices of yellow maize rose sharply again in January, reflecting the below‑average production of the 2022 minor season crop. Although prices decreased in February and March, owing to improved prospects for the main season crop, they remained 70 percent above their year‑earlier levels. Prices of rice were quite stable between December 2021 and March 2022 and slightly higher year on year on account of the below‑average 2022 harvest. In general, food prices in March were higher year on year, with an annual inflation rate of food items estimated at 17.5 percent.