Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Cereal output in 2019 estimated at average level
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Improved rainfall forecast for remaining of 2019 expected favourable for crop development of 2020 minor season crops
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Cereal exports in 2019/20 forecast close to five-year average
Cereal output in 2019 estimated at average level
Harvesting of the 2019 main maize crop finalized in August and production is estimated at an average level, as a contraction in plantings, instigated by dry conditions during the planting season, was offset by improved yields due to beneficial rains in the development and flowering stages. Dryness in early 2019 also affected the maturation of minor season maize crops, harvested in the first quarter of 2019. The aggregate 2019 maize production is estimated at an average level of 4.9 million tonnes.
Harvesting of the 2019 wheat crop is underway and production is estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, slightly above the average level.
The planted area experienced a moderate contraction due to farmers’ reduced financial resources at planting time, following a well below-average soybean harvest earlier in 2019. Despite some localized damages by heavy rainfall and frosts in the June-July period, yields are expected to be slightly above average.
The 2019 rice crop, harvested earlier in May, is estimated at an above-average level of 965 000 tonnes, mainly reflecting a significant increase in planted area.
Improved rainfall forecast for remaining of 2019 expected favourable for crop development of 2020 minor season crops
Planting of the 2020 first and minor season maize crops, to be harvested in February and March next year, concluded recently.
Sustained rainfall deficits from July to October 2019, particularly in eastern producing areas, caused some delay in planting activities. Weather forecasts for the remainder of 2019 indicate a high likelihood of average to above-average precipitations, which are likely to alleviate soil moisture deficits and support the early development of crops.
Planting of the 2020 mainly irrigated rice crop, to be harvested between March and June 2020, is ongoing at a good pace, supported by adequate water availabilities for irrigation. Given the abundant rainfall forecast for November and December 2019, the production outlook for the crops is expected at an above-average level.
Cereal exports in 2019/20 forecast close to five-year average
Cereal exports in the 2019/20 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at 3.3 million tonnes, close to the five-year average.
Exports of maize, which account for the largest share of exports, are forecast at a near-average level of 2.15 million tonnes, reflecting large market availabilities from the 2018 and 2019 harvests that allowed also to cover the increasing in domestic demand for the production of ethanol.