Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Plantings of 2025 main season maize crop estimated below average
- Output of 2025 paddy season anticipated near average
- Exports of cereals in 2024/25 anticipated 20 percent below average
- Maize and rice prices higher year-on-year, reflecting below-average harvest in 2024
Plantings of 2025 main season maize crop estimated below average
Planting of the 2025 zafriña main maize season, accounting for about 80 percent of the annual production, ended last March and the harvest is expected to start in May. The sown area is estimated at below-average levels, despite rebounding from the low 2024 extension, mainly due to strong export demand in the first quarter of 2025. Prolonged dry spells and high temperatures in January and February 2025 in the main cropping regions of Alto Paraná, Itapúa, Caaguazú and Canindeyú, delayed planting operations and hampered crops’ early development stages. Although abundant precipitations in the second half of March partially replenished soil moisture deficits, weather forecasts point to below-average rainfall amounts in May, coinciding with the crop’s late development stage, with likely negative effects on yields.
The harvest of the 2025 maize minor season crop concluded last January and production is anticipated to be below the five-year average. Low export demand in the second half of 2024 deterred farmers from planting and the sown area was below average. Adverse weather conditions between September and November 2024 in main producing eastern regions, coinciding with the development stage, curbed yields.
Output of 2025 paddy season anticipated near average
Planting operations of the 2025 wheat crop started in April. The sown area is anticipated at above-average levels, as high import demand in the first quarter of the year encouraged farmers to increase plantings. Weather forecasts point to average rainfall amounts in the June to July period, which coincides with the flowering and grain filling stages, providing conducive conditions for crop development.
The 2025 paddy harvest is underway and is expected to finalize in May. Higher year-on-year prices and high import demand at planting times from October to December 2024 supported farmers’ decision to plant, and plantings are estimated above the five-year average. However, prolonged dry spells in key producing southeastern departments in the first quarter of 2025 delayed planting operations and negatively affected crop germination and vegetative development (NDVI map). Overall, the 2025 output is estimated at near-average levels.
Exports of cereals in 2024/25 anticipated 20 percent below average
Cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at 3.3 million tonnes, about 20 percent below the previous five-year average and well below the record-high levels in 2022 and 2023. The contraction is mainly due to the low 2024 production of maize, the country’s major exportable cereal, of which export volumes are forecast around 2 million tonnes, about 30 percent below the five-year average. Wheat exports are anticipated at above-average 600 000 tonnes, reflecting the ample availability from the 2024 large outturn.
Maize and rice prices higher year-on-year, reflecting below-average harvest in 2024
Prices of yellow maize exhibited slight increases in February and March 2025, as downward pressure exerted by the end of the minor season harvest was offset by concerns over the impact of dryness on ongoing main season plantings. Maize prices were moderately higher year-on-year, reflecting the low supply from the 2024 below-average outturn. Rice prices declined month-on-month in March, eased by improved market availability from the start of the 2025 harvest, and were about 23 percent above their level of one year earlier, due to limited supply from the 2023 below-average harvest.
Overall, food prices in March were higher than one year earlier, with an annual inflation rate of food items estimated at 6.4 percent, growing for the third consecutive month.