ENSO Impact Outlook: Papua New Guinea 2017/2018 (La Niña)

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Key Messages

• The latest (mid-Oct) ENSO forecast indicate a 60% chance for weak La Niña condition to persist during the Nov-Jan and this might likely to continue until the end of the wet season in PNG. Therefore evaluating possible potential impact pathways for La Niña conditions and having contingency plans in place, would be helpful preparedness measure to reduce risks and harness favorable weather conditions.

• Four possible ENSO scenarios are considered during the first half of the PNG wet season viz. neutral condition; weak, moderate and strong La Niña. The ENSO associated impacts observed during past years is presented in this outlook document.

• As the ENSO Outlook indicates a weak La Niña conditions it is desirable to anticipate weak La Nina associated outlook could be relied upon.

• The impacts of La Niña on rainfall patterns vary across PNG. In the past, the La Niña conditions results in wetter condition over most of the PNG except eastern islands of Milne Bay region. The chances of occurrence of floods, landslides, and cyclones are most likely and these hazards could affect the following sectors agriculture, infrastructure, water resources and health.

• The priority sectoral agencies could prepare contingency plans based on the four impact scenarios presented in this outlook document and dynamically adjust contingency plans based on upcoming monthly forecasts from NWS.

• RIMES could facilitate stakeholder participatory district level risk assessment in case relevant data is made available.