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Regional Overview
Looking to 2024, the situation in Afghanistan and neighbouring countries will be challenging. As highlighted by the UN Security Council, the human rights situation inside Afghanistan, especially related to the rights of women and girls and religious and ethnic minorities, remains dire. Some 23.7 million people (more than half of Afghanistan's population) require urgent humanitarian assistance to survive. Devastating natural disasters and climate induced emergencies, including deadly earthquakes in Afghanistan in 2022 and 2023 and floods and earthquakes in Pakistan and Iran in 2022, have compounded the situation.
The Islamic Republics of Iran and Pakistan host some 7.7 million Afghans while around 1.6 million have arrived since 2021, according to government estimates.
Pakistan hosts approximately 3.2 million Afghan refugees and Afghans of other statuses (76 per cent of whom are women and children), reflecting the long history of solidarity and support extended by the country. However, in recent years, the Protection environment has become increasingly challenging. In early October 2023, Pakistan's national Apex Committee endorsed the Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan (IFRP) to return foreigners without valid documents, largely Afghans. As of early February 2024, over 500,000 Afghans have returned from Pakistan to Afghanistan since 15 September.
Against a challenging economic situation, increasing insecurity and evolving protection landscape, Pakistan continues to grapple with the complexities of providing adequate support and ensuring the protection of a substantial population of Afghan refugees and Afghans of other statuses while balancing the needs of its own citizens. Recognizing the plight of Afghan refugees and those in refugee-like situations. including women and girls without documentation and unaccompanied and separated children (UASC) regardless of their documentation status, there is a pressing need for sustainable solutions and comprehensive support systems. Ensuring access to education and healthcare for all and creating opportunities for livelihoods to alleviate poverty and promote self reliance are other critical priorities. The multifaceted challenges presented by the current dynamic protection environment highlight the need to work collaboratively and proactively with authorities to promote the safety and well-being of Afghan refugees and individuals of other statuses in Pakistan and to foster an environment that upholds Afghan’s rights and safeguards their dignity while addressing host communities’ concerns.
According to government estimates, Iran hosts at least 4.5 million Afghans some 71 per cent women and children}, including those who have arrived since 2021. This includes 3.4 million Afghan refugees and Afghans in a refugee -like situation, including some 750,000 Amayesh card holders and 2.6 million recorded in the 2022 headcount exercise.
Many of the remaining Afghan individuals in Iran are without documentation due to a lack of available pathways to seek asylum or regularize their stay. Afghans continue to arrive in Iran daily for various reasons, primarily via #regular routes, with a degree of back-and-forth movement also observed. New arrivals join millions of other Afghans who have been generously hosted in Iran for decades, many of whom are third of fourth-generation refugees. Iran continues to grant access to education and healthcare to Afghan nationals, including those without documentation.
However. limited livelihoods opportunities and poverty — exacerbated by the combined impact of high inflation and sanctions — continue to drive needs. According to data from the Statistical Centre of Iran. the annual inflation rate was around 45.5 per cent as of November 2023. Food price increases continue to outpace overall inflation, disproportionately impacting the least well-off who spend a higher proportion of their income on food. As a result, the most disadvantaged in society. which mostly comprises Afghan refugees, are forced to make difficult trade-offs or resort to harmful coping mechanisms to make ends meet. in 2024, Afghans will likely experience greater challenges covering associated cost of school enrolment, healthcare, or documentation. Those without documentation face a particularly precarious situation due to the persistent risk of deportation, various forms of exploitation, abuse and trafficking, and further barriers to accessing services. At the same time, there's a significant strain on Iranians and the inclusive services extended to Afghans, which can undermine social cohesion and subsequently limit opportunities for self-reliance.