Subject: Preparation for Monsoon 2016
Pakistan Meteorological Department has issued the Seasonal Outlook for Spring and Early Summer 2016 which states that “Prevailing oceanic, atmospheric and surface climatic conditions suggest that uncertainties in Pakistan’s weather pattern will persist towards the early Summer till the El Nino comes to neutral phase in May – June 2016’’ as explained at Annex A.
Outlook for the next three months has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the dynamics of climatic system. Following are the highlights of weather in Spring and early Summer:
a. March and April are expected to be wetter than normal. Frequent spells of rainfall and isolated hailstorms associated with windstorm may hamper the harvesting and threshing of wheat and sowing of cotton.
b. May and first half of June are likely to remain drier and hotter than normal. That would increase the probability of occurrence of heatwaves over plains and coastal belt of the Country.
c. Heatwave conditions in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral may accelerate glacier melting and trigger Glacier Lake Outburst Flooding (GLOF) events in the coming Summer season.
d. Due to intense heating, Monsoon onset is expected to be early during second half of June 2016.
e. El Nino is declining and global climate models predict it to run in the neutral phase during Monsoon season.