Attachments
A. SITUATION ANALYSIS
Description of the crisis
The 2025 monsoon season, which intensified from late June and peaked through mid-September, delivered unprecedented rainfall across Pakistan, triggering widespread flash floods, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and riverine inundation. Secondary impacts, including lingering waterlogging, infrastructure breaches, and early winter conditions, persisted into November, but receding floodwaters and improved reservoir levels have supported a deeper shift toward recovery efforts in Punjab, the epicentre of the crisis and provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Sindh, and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). As of 30 November 2025, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) report continued stabilization in acute needs, with the nationwide death toll steady at 1,037 (including 304 in Punjab and 504 in KP) and injuries at 1,067 (primarily in Punjab and KP). Displacement has further declined to around 80,000 people nationwide, down from 150,000 in October, as over 95 per cent of Punjab's 2.7 million evacuees have repatriated, bolstered by below-normal November rainfall and enhanced access to de-flooded areas per Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasts.
In Punjab, the worst flooding in four decades submerged vast riverine areas along the Sutlej, Chenab, and Ravi rivers, affecting nearly 4.9 million people overall, with over 4.2 million directly impacted in August–September alone. While 2.7 million have returned, an estimated 4.5 million continue to face challenges from the damaged houses (over 229,760 destroyed or partially destroyed nationwide, 92 per cent in Punjab), disrupted roads (2,811 km), and breached bridges (790 affected).
Southern districts such as Multan and Muzaffargarh, where depths reached up to 10 meters in September, have fully stabilized below danger level thresholds, enabling comprehensive assessment. However, isolated inundation from the embankment failures lingers in low-lying pockets, and emergency declarations in nine KP districts triggered by August cloudbursts exceeding 150 mm of rain in Buner have transitioned to recovery alerts.
Agricultural recovery has advanced significantly with the Rabi sowing season, targeting 30 million tons of wheat for 2025–26 to mitigate losses and enhance food security. Floods inundated 1.12 million hectares in Punjab (9 per cent of the arable land), including 220,000 hectares of rice fields, plus damage to cotton, sugarcane, and maize crops during peak harvest. Nationwide agricultural losses exceed US$1.23 billion across Punjab, Sindh, and KP, compounded by over 22,800 livestock deaths and destroyed farming tools. As per the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) projection of only 8 per cent water shortage for Rabi, the flood replenished 99 per cent capacity.
Wheat planting has reached 85 per cent completion in Punjab, aided by FAO's distribution of seeds and fertilizer to 500,000 smallholders. Wheat flour prices, which peaked at a 25 per cent surge in September, have stabilized at 10 per cent above baseline, though fodder shortage persists, threatening an additional 150,000 livestock. Total economic damage is estimated at Rs822 billion (approximately US$3 billion), with infrastructure losses alone surpassing Rs307 billion.
Vulnerable populations, women, children (over 500 child deaths reported nationwide), older persons, migrants (including Afghan refugees), and persons with disabilities face ongoing risk from mobility barriers, aid exclusion and inadequate shelters, particularly in northern areas bracing for one of the coldest winters in decades under La Niña conditions. Undocumented migrants and 1.5 million malnourished children remain highly susceptible to contaminated water, with WASH system now 30 per cent compromised (down from 50 per cent), fueling surges in the waterborne diseases like diarrhea and vector-borne illnesses such as dengue and malaria.
Response efforts have solidified the transition to recovery, with NDMA concluding an additional 800 operations in November, raising Punjab's total to 7,768 rescues and evacuating 2.9 million people and 450,000 animals since August. Furthermore, relief camps have been reduced to 45 nationwide, while 351 medical sites and 321 veterinary facilities now operate as permanent hubs. Relief distributions have exceeded 500,000 units, including 55,000 tents, with NDMA delivering 3,000 tons of essentials (blankets, mosquito nets, water filters) to Punjab and KP districts. The Pakistan Red Crescent Society (PRCS), supported by the IFRC, has expanded hygiene kits to 2,500 families in Punjab and 2,800 families in KP, GB and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). Additionally, over 100,000 food parcels were distributed in KP and Punjab, mobile water treatment plants were deployed in KP and Punjab, and mobile health units were deployed to combat waterborne illnesses.
The OCHA Pakistan Central Emergency Response Fund allocated an additional US$3 million in November for Health and WASH, while the Pakistan Country-Based Pooled Fund disbursed US$2.5 million to local NGOs for shelter, livestock support and Nutrition, reaching 300,000 beneficiaries.
Moreover, the protracted Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) crisis demands ongoing actions, as residual contamination disease surge among 1.5 million vulnerable children, with WHO-supported surveillance detecting early cholera clusters in Sindh and Punjab Long-term priorities encompass resilient drainage, flood-resistant agriculture, enhanced early warning systems, and climate adaptation measures to counter Pakistan's rising threats from glacial melt, intensified monsoons, and upstream water releases—exacerbated by La Nina’s colder northern winters, which have isolated GB communities and heightened hypothermia risk for 200,000 in makeshift shelter.
The Humanitarian cluster team endorsed support for the relief and recovery plan from October 2025 to April 2026, targeting US$150 million to assist 1.9 million people out of the 2.8 million in need across 14 prioritized districts in Punjab, KP, and GB. Comprising 100 vetted projects from UN agencies and partners, it guides mobilization for coordinated recovery, with 40 per cent funding secured by December, prioritizing shelter rehabilitation and livelihood restoration aimed at winter challenges.