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High food prices, recurring climatic shocks, reduced livelihood and income opportunities and livestock diseases are driving acute food insecurity in 47 rural districts of Pakistan.
Overview
The IPC acute food insecurity analysis in Pakistan covered 47 floods affected/vulnerable rural districts. These districts spread across Balochistan (21), Sindh (15), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (11) and account for approximately 35.6 million people or 15 percent of Pakistan’s total population. Notably, these areas are also marked by widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, and poverty.
During the current period (March-June 2024), corresponding to the lean season in some areas, the harvest season for Rabi (winter) crops and the planting of Kharif (summer) season crops, approximately 8.6 million people (24 percent of the analysed population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Across the 47 analysed districts, about 1.6 million people (4 percent of the population) are in IPC Phase 4, while approximately 7 million people (20 percent of the population) are in Phase 3. Urgent action is needed to protect livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps in Phase 3 and save lives in Phase 4.
Out of the 47 districts analysed, there are three classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) and one classified in Phase 4, while the remaining 43 districts are classified in Phase 3. Twenty districts have between 30 and 45 percent of their populations in IPC Phases 3 or above (Crisis or worse) and another 24 districts have between 20 and 30 percent.
Looking ahead to the projection period (July-November 2024), corresponding to the monsoon season and post-harvest Kharif (summer) crops, the number of people in Phase 3 and Phase 4 is expected to slightly decrease to 7.9 million from 8.6 million, accounting for 22 percent of the rural population, representing an 8 percent decrease from the current analysis period. Of the 47 rural districts, 5 are classified in Phase 2 and 42 in Phase 3.
The analysed districts have been severely affected by a series of crises, including the aftermath of devastating 2022 flooding, 2023 monsoon rains and high food, fuel, and agricultural input prices exacerbated by poor political and economic conditions, as well as mild drought conditions in several parts of Sindh and Balochistan and livestock diseases.
Despite anticipated improvements such as increased household wheat stocks and projected growth in wheat production for the 2023-24 season, persistent challenges such as high food, fuel, and agricultural input prices, anticipated climatic shocks, and limited livelihood opportunities, will continue to affect food security. The lingering impacts of the 2022 flooding continue to exacerbate food access issues, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive interventions to address the complex factors contributing to food insecurity in these areas.
A comparison between the current AFI analysis in March 2024 and the previous one conducted in April 2023, for the 37 districts common to both analyses, reveals an overall improvement in the food security situation. Nonetheless, the level of food insecurity remains notably high.
Key Drivers
High food prices
High food inflation exceeding 45 percent throughout the first nine months of 2023, coupled with exchange rate depreciation, increased fuel prices, and various domestic and international factors, placed considerable strain on household budgets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) also remained notably elevated throughout the year, substantially impacting food accessibility and the purchasing power of vulnerable groups including lowincome farmers, daily wage laborers, and households engaged in small-scale businesses.
Reduced employment/income opportunities
Pakistan’s political and economic uncertainties have raised costs, hampered employment, and reduced incomes, particularly affecting vulnerable populations. Border closures have negatively impacted those living in border areas and engaged in cross-border trade with Afghanistan and Iran.
Climatic shocks
The enduring effects of the 2022 floods continue to strain livelihoods. This is exacerbated by a reduction in aid and infrastructure rehabilitation and compounded by subsequent extreme weather events in 2023 and early 2024 such as heavy rain, snowfall, and mild drought in parts of Balochistan and Sindh.
Livestock diseases and pest outbreaks
Frequent livestock diseases and pest outbreaks are negatively affecting crop production and disrupting the livelihoods of small-scale/vulnerable farmers and livestock keepers. Livestock diseases, feed shortages, and the devastating effects of recent rainfall and floods, indicate a dire need for improved health and nutritional support for livestock