Pakistan: Fortnightly drought watch bulletin (1-15 October, 2021)

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1. Weather Summary for the 1st fortnight of October 2021

During the first fortnight of October 2021, Rain bearing systems produced Moderate to Heavy rainfall at isolated places in the country. Spatial distribution of the rainfall is shown in Figure No.1. The chief amounts of rainfall recorded across Pakistan during the period 1-15 October, 2021 are shown in Table-1 below;

Figure 1 shows Spatial distribution of the recorded rainfall during the period. The Figure 2 depicts the Percentage Departure of Rainfall from the normal. Above normal rainfall were received over most of of the places in the country during first fortnight of October while below normal at some spots in Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan and upper KP. More rains are likely to occur during the 2nd fortnight of October. Therefore, farmers are advised to keep themselves abreast of weather updates and plan field activities accordingly to minimize weather induced losses to the matured/cultivated crops.

2. Drought Situation Analysis

Spatial drought analysis results using different indices are represented in Fig. 3. In Balochistan, Districts Chagi, Kharan, Panjgur, Washuk and Kech are facing Moderate while Awaran and Quetta are facing Mild Drought Conditions.

In Sindh Province, due to the persistent rains in recent weeks, Drought conditions have become normal, whereas districts like Karachi, Tharparkar, Badin, Chhor and adjoining areas are showing slightly wet conditions.

3. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values for the period 26 Sept to 11 Oct 2021 are shown in Fig. 4. NDVI values are good, depicting the impacts of wet conditions over the areas of upper KP, Punjab and along the Indus belt, whereas low NDVI values are observed in the southern parts.

4. Land Surface Temperature (LST)

Land surface Temperatures (LST) for the period 04 – 11 October, 2021 are represented in Fig. 5. In northern and central parts of the country, temperatures are low as compared with southern parts which are showing higher values. Most of the central areas are facing temperatures between 30°C to 35°C.

5. Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI)

Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) derived from MODIS product MOD13A2 (NDVI) and MOD11A2 (LST) is shown in Fig. 6, which indicates that mild to moderate dry conditions are prevailing across southwestern Balochistan in Nokkundi and Dalbandin areas whereas mild wet conditions are prevailing at isolated places in the Sindh province.