Pakistan 2022 Floods Response Plan Interim Report: Sep – Nov 2022 (Issued 09 Dec 2022)

At a Glance

FLOODS RESPONSE PLAN DURATION: 9 months (01 Sep 2022 – 31 May 2023)

PEOPLE AFFECTED - 33M

PEOPLE IN NEED - 20.6M

PEOPLE TARGETED - 9.5M

REQUIREMENTS (US$) - $816M

Introduction

This report provides an overview of progress made, and challenges experienced by the humanitarian community during the first three months of the 2022 Floods Response Plan (FRP) for Pakistan, as anchored in the three strategic objectives set out in the FRP. On behalf of the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT), it takes stock of the developments and response between September and November 2022 and identifies priorities for the remaining 6 months of the FRP. It presents the importance of interlinked strategic objectives, without precluding the criticality of other objectives.

Situation Overview

By end-November 2022, the flood extent of 4,700 km2 across Sindh and Balochistan, compared to 85,000 km2 of Pakistan appearing to be affected by floodwater during the peak rainfall from July to August 2022. The reduced floodwater levels have improved access in some affected areas, and, where flood water has sufficiently receded, a significant number of people have returned to their areas of origin. Of the 8 million people estimated to be displaced as of early October 2022, when the revised Floods Response Plan (FRP) was issued, 5.4 million remained displaced as of mid-November.

While floodwaters are receding in some areas, humanitarian needs persist both in area of displacements and of return. More than 2 million homes were severely damaged or destroyed, as were businesses and community infrastructure, while personal possessions, household items, livestock and other assets were washed away or destroyed. In some locations, mainly in Sindh, and in some parts of Balochistan, water has yet to recede and may remain for several months into the new year, protracting the dire humanitarian situation for people in these areas.

Winterisation With the onset of winter season (November-February), stagnant receding water, displacements at inadequate and makeshift sites, damaged shelters, and the lack of appropriate winter clothing, basic household items and safe heating supplies, are contributing to placing millions of people at risk of illness, disease and protection concerns, especially gender-based violence. Based on damage severity, and propensity for severe weather, 14 districts of Sindh, 10 districts of Balochistan, nine districts of Khyber Pakhunkhwa and two districts of Punjab have been identified most exposed to difficult winter conditions.

Public health and WASH

Public health remain a critical concern with widespread water- and vector-borne diseases. Cases of malaria continue despite a decline in overall confirmed daily incidence rates since late October 2022. Over 1,000 confirmed cholera cases and 76,000 dengue cases have been recorded in 2022. Diarrhoea remains widespread, and the increase of malnutrition in children. The impact of the floods is undermining efforts to address this, with over 1,460 public health facilities, medical supplies and equipment having been damaged or destroyed, and 5.5 million people in schools and communities left without access to safe drinking water and sanitation, due to the damage and contamination to water supply systems and sanitation facilities. Lack of clean water soap supply in villages and schools, further compromise hygiene practices, where open defecation practices have increased between 15-20 per cent. In sites where there is lack of segregated latrines and bathing facilities, gender-based violence remain a risk. The 8 million flood-affected people are estimated to need health assistance, including 4 million children lacking access to health services.

Food insecurity and malnutrition

An estimated 4.4 million acres of crop area, enough to cultivate crop for 14.6 million people remain damaged, and more than 800,000 livestock lost. Because of the floods – The knock-on effects will continue to be felt over the longer term. More than US$12.9 billion in losses were incurred by the agriculture sector -comprising crops, livestock, fisheries, and forestry. Access to adequate food and nutrition is an increasing concern. A further estimated 1.1 million people are at high risk of sliding from crisis (IPC 3) to emergency (IPC 4) conditions under the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). Likely to increase the number of people at IPC 4 to 5.1 million people, between December 2022 and March 2023.

Currently, an estimated 14.6 million people need food assistance, while over 7 million children and women needing immediate access to nutrition services. This includes over 520,000 children facing severe acute malnutrition (SAM) requiring immediate treatment, and close to 80,000 children who need urgent medical interventions due to SAM related medical complications.

Inflation and poverty

The losses in food production are compounded by the disruption of income and livelihood and the rising prices amidst national and global inflation. In October 2022, inflation in Pakistan based on the Consumer Price Index increased by 4.71 per cent and by 26.56 per cent year-on-year. Increases in CPI food inflation rose by 36.24 per cent over October 2021. Preliminary estimates indicate an increase in the national poverty rate of 3.7 per cent to 4.0 per cent as a direct result of the floods. Placing between 8.4 million and 9.1 million people into abject poverty.

Education

Pakistan has one of the world’s highest number of out-of-school children, including 45 per cent of children in flood-affected districts who are out-of-school prior to the floods. The education deprivation has been exacerbated by prolonged school closures due to the flood disaster. There are 34,200 schools damaged or destroyed. While 96 non damaged schools are used to host displaced people, this has temporarily disrupted learning for 3.5 million children and adolescents. Children, especially girls, are at highest risk of permanent school dropout. The longer that the children are away from school, the less likely they are to return. The prolonged education disruptions are increasing learning disparities.

Protection

The floods intensified pre-existing protection risks – including gender-based violence, child marriage and child labour – and created new concerns such as exposure to flood-related hazards, loss of civil documentation including birth certificates, looting of possessions and psychological trauma.

People affected by the floods are increasingly adopting negative coping strategies, including selling of income-producing assets, increasing debt, skipping meals, child marriage, child slave labour and withdrawing children from schools.

Risks to physical security and to safely accessing assistance remain high, especially for women, children, persons with mobility and special needs, older persons, minorities and refugees, with women, girls, and transgender persons potentially at higher risk of sexual exploitation and abuse.

Without a sustained adequate humanitarian assistance for everyone in need, people are becoming increasingly desperate, especially for food and other basic assistance.