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Overview
In 2022, the food security situation in the seven analyzed districts has worsened because of high food and fuel prices, drought/inadequate rainfall, localized flooding in a few areas, livestock diseases, local conflicts, and reduced employment opportunities.
Around 1.44 million people (28 percent of the rural population analyzed) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) in the current period (July-August 2022), which corresponds to the Kharif crop season/monsoon period. These include around 1.08 million people (21 percent of the rural population) in IPC Phase 3 and around 0.36 million people (7 percent of the rural population) in IPC Phase 4 across the seven districts analyzed. Bajaur, Khyber, Mohmand, North Waziristan and South Waziristan have between 25-30 percent of their population, whereas Kurram and Orakzai have 40 percent of their population in IPC Phases 3 or 4. Urgent action is therefore required to protect livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps of people in Crisis and to save lives and livelihoods of people in Emergency. All seven analyzed districts, namely Bajaur, Khyber, Kurram, Mohmand, North Waziristan, Orakzai and South Waziristan, are classified in IPC Phase 3 during the current analysis period.
The analysis of the projection period (September-December 2022), which corresponds to the harvesting of Kharif season crops and sowing of Rabi season crops, indicates that the number of people in Crisis and Emergency phases is expected to increase to 1.76 million (35 percent of the rural population analyzed), an increase of 0.32 million or 22 percent compared to the current period. All seven districts will remain in IPC Phase 3 during the projection period.
The food security situation in the projection period is likely to deteriorate further due to reduced food production in neighboring districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, which have been affected by monsoon rains and flooding and will have spillover effects on food prices in the analyzed districts. The food access will be challenging because of the continuous increase in food commodity prices and reduced livelihood opportunities during the projection period.