Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
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Wheat production in 2015 forecast at record level of 26.4 million tonnes
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Despite improved production, wheat imports anticipated higher in 2014/15 marketing year (May/April)
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Prices of wheat and wheat flour declined in February and were well below year-earlier levels
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Overall food security conditions stable but localized food insecurity persists
Wheat production in 2015 forecast at record level of 26.4 million tonnes
Harvesting of the 2015, mostly irrigated, “rabi” (winter) wheat crop will start in April and continue until June. Below-average rains at the very start of the 2014/15 agricultural season (October-June) resulted in water deficits, particularly in the rainfed areas of northern Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. Rains, however, returned to normal patterns since early January, benefitting crop development at critical growing stages, after the crop came out of dormancy in early February. The vegetation response captured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), as of the third dekad of February, shows good establishment of winter wheat over most of the country. The official forecast for 2015 wheat production has been recently revised upwards by 402 000 tonnes to a record level of 26.4 million tonnes, 4 percent up from the bumper level of the previous year. The larger production is attributed to a near 4 percent increase in the area planted and slightly higher forecasted yields, on account of adequate irrigation water supply, high fertilizer use and improved rains.
Bumper 2014 paddy and maize production estimated
Latest official estimates put the 2014 paddy production at 10.1 million tonnes, 11 percent above the previous five-year average, but 1 percent lower than 2013’s bumper output. The slight decrease is the result of localized crop damages in some eastern parts of Punjab, Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), following floods in September and drought in southeastern parts of Sindh province.
FAO puts the 2014 maize crop (including the spring and “kharif” seasons) at 4.7 million tonnes, 4 percent up from last year’s bumper production. The large maize output in Punjab province, as a result of increased plantings following a shift of cotton areas into maize, and increased use of hybrid maize seeds, is estimated to have more than compensated for a production decline in Sindh province, following the poor rains.