Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Area planted to 2025 wheat crop estimated at above‑average level
- Record cereal production obtained in 2024
- Wheat import requirements in 2024/25 forecast significantly below five‑year average level
- Wheat flour prices at low levels between June 2024 and February 2025
- Acute food insecurity declining between April and July 2025
Area planted to 2025 wheat crop estimated at above‑average level
Planting of the 2025 wheat crop, almost entirely irrigated, finalized in December 2024 and harvesting is expected to start in April 2025. The area planted is estimated at an above‑average level, supported by government incentives, including subsidies for agricultural inputs, distribution of high-yielding seeds and interest‑free loans through the Kissan Card initiative. However, the area planted declined year-on-year, as the removal of the Minimum Support Price (MSP) since May 2024, combined with low domestic wheat prices at planting time, led some farmers to shift to more profitable vegetables and cash crops, including mustard and pulses. Despite well below‑average cumulative precipitation amounts and warmer‑than‑average temperatures between October 2024 and early February 2025, vegetation conditions in the main wheat cropping areas were average to above average due to sufficient supply of irrigation water (ASI map). However, dry weather conditions negatively affected crop emergence and early development in rainfed areas, known locally as barani, which account for about 20 percent of the total plantings, and in some minor irrigated areas in northern parts of the country due to shortage of irrigation water. In these areas, FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), as of early February 2025, indicated that cropland was affected by drought conditions, suggesting unfavourable yield prospects.
Overall, the 2025 wheat production will depend on the performance of the rainy season until April. Abundant rainfall amounts are needed to support proper crop development and to replenish main reservoirs that will be used for irrigating the 2025 main season crops from May onwards.
Record cereal production obtained in 2024
The 2024 cropping season finalized in December 2024 and aggregate cereal production is estimated at a record level of 56.6 million tonnes. Production of wheat crop in 2024 is officially estimated at a record level of 31.4 million tonnes, reflecting large sowings and excellent yields, supported by adequate supply of irrigation water and widespread use of high yielding seed varieties. Similarly, production of paddy crop is estimated at a record level of 15.2 million tonnes, primarily due to an increase in sowings, driven by high prices at planting time. Production of maize is estimated at an average level of 9.5 million tonnes.
Wheat import requirements in 2024/25 forecast at very low level
Wheat import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast to be negligeable, if compared to the previous five-year average, mostly owing to the record production harvested in 2024. Although the country was traditionally a wheat exporter, unusual large volumes of wheat were imported between 2020/21 and 2023/24, when domestic availability was very tight due to below-average outputs gathered between 2018 and 2020, and stock losses caused by severe floods in 2022.
Exports of rice, the country’s major exportable cereal, are forecast at 5.5 million tonnes in calendar year 2025, down from the record level of 6.5 million tonnes shipped in 2024 due to heightened competition for markets, but still an overall ample export level. Exports of maize in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at an average level of 500 000 tonnes.
Wheat flour prices at low levels between June 2024 and February 2025
Domestic prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple food, declined sharply between March and June 2024 due to the abundant market supply from the record 2024 harvest. Additionally, the Punjab provincial government, which previously purchased wheat from farmers at a minimum support price, decided not to procure wheat from the 2024 harvest, increasing market supply and further driving down prices. Then, between August 2024 and February 2025, prices remained overall stable or oscillated slightly. By February 2025, wheat flour prices were 30 to 40 percent lower than the high levels of a year earlier, when they were underpinned by generally tight market availability.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, food inflation has been generally declining since mid‑2023, turning into deflation at -3.1 percent in January 2025, significantly below the 25 percent in January 2024.
Acute food insecurity declining between April and July 2025
According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 10 million people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between April and July 2025, down from the 11 million people during the November 2024 to March 2025 period. The improvement is attributed to increased household wheat stocks after the record 2024 output, the significant year‑on‑year decline in wheat flour prices, which, together with the start of the 2025 wheat harvest in April 2025, are expected to enhance households’ food access.