Climate Risks and Food Security Analysis: A Special Report for Pakistan (Islamabad, December 2018)

Originally published


Executive Summary

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to the impacts of climate change. The risks it faces are compounded by high rates of food and nutrition insecurity. As the climate continues to change, weather patterns grow more erratic and intense climate-related disasters more frequent, rates of food insecurity will rise even higher. Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on all facets of food security in Pakistan – i.e. availability, access, utilization and stability. It will take a severe toll on the vital agriculture sector, on which the livelihoods of half the population depend. Food security is a priority for the Government of Pakistan, as reflected in key policy documents such as the national development plan, Vision 2025. This means that addressing climate risks to food security must also be a priority.

The Ministry of Climate Change of Pakistan, the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) and the World Food Programme (WFP) developed this report to analyse the impacts of climate variability on food security in Pakistan. Climate Risks and Food Security Analysis (CRFSA): A Special Report for Pakistan also identifies vulnerabilities in the country’s ten agro-ecological zones, and provides recommendations for practitioners and policymakers. Its objectives are to:

  • highlight the relationship between food security and climate variability in Pakistan, particularly related to changes in temperature and precipitation;
  • understand the impact of climate change on agro-ecological zones in the country; and
  • identify a set of policies to build adaptive capacity and reduce climate‐related food insecurity in Pakistan’s most vulnerable communities.

The report uses spatial analysis to identify food insecurity ‘hot spots’, employing long-term climate variables and food security indicators from global and national data sets. Comprehensive analysis of available literature enables the report to capture the impacts of climate change on food security by studying its effects on agricultural production. The analysis also makes use of local knowledge, gained through participatory consultations with provincial stakeholders, to inform climate vulnerability mapping across Pakistan’s agro‐ecological zones.