By Fareeda Khalifa
Introduction
This article explores the different patterns of violence in the ongoing conflict in Gaza since October 2023, which has disproportionately impacted civilians, particularly examining the distribution of violence and weapon types. With this scope, we rely on data from AOAV’s explosive monitor to identify key trends in civilian casualties and potential International Humanitarian Law (IHL) violations, and the role of arms exporters in this regard. The descriptive analysis of patterns seeks to provide insights into some of the conflict dynamics and how to navigate the humanitarian consequences, promote accountability, and develop effective strategies for prevention and response.
In the period between October 2023 and October 2024, there have been 4138 recorded incidents of explosive violence in Palestine, Israel and Lebanon – with 3314 taking place in Gaza, 493 in Lebanon, 253 in Israel, and 78 in the West Bank.
Impact on Women and Civilians
With the demographic impact of conflict and violence falling disproportionately on civilian populations, women often bear unique and heightened vulnerabilities. Civilians, particularly those in densely populated or marginalised areas, are frequently targeted in conflicts, leading to devastating loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, and disruption of livelihoods.
Furthermore, women are disproportionately affected by the collapse of social systems such as healthcare and education, which are critical for family and community well-being. Understanding these demographic impacts is essential for crafting effective interventions, ensuring gender-sensitive approaches, and fostering long-term recovery and stability. In this case and the time period under study, over 95% of the incidents took place in populated areas, and more than 42,000 civilian casualties. The overall trend for civilian and recorded women casualties is showcased in Figure 2.
Violence Location Analysis
In addition to considering the volume and trend of civilian casualties, it is crucial to consider the spatial patterns of explosive violence, and the potential strategic outlook of targeting particular locations, which can have implications in terms of compliance with IHL, as they are intended to be safeguarded under its principles yet are frequently targeted or affected by conflict.
According to AOAV’s event data, the top five categories where explosive violence has occurred are urban residential areas, encampments, villages, hospitals, and schools, which already point towards a problematic approach of violence and compliance. Table 1 presents the number of events taking place in each location type.
For example, encampments, which include internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, are supposed to be neutral zones protected from hostilities, as IHL places provisions not only to prevent displacement, but also to protect IDPs and provide them with the necessary assistance. However, with the attacks being spread out across the Gaza strip and the continuous displacement, it is difficult to ensure the safety and security of IDPs, making them vulnerable to attacks and exploitation, often violating the protections afforded to civilians under IHL.
Hospitals and other humanitarian infrastructure, which are explicitly shielded under the Geneva Conventions, have been frequently targeted or damaged, either deliberately to weaken the resilience of civilian populations or as indiscriminate collateral damage. Similarly, places of worship and schools have been targeted where they are gathering points for civilians, including vulnerable groups like women and children. Such attacks not only result in immediate casualties but also disrupt critical healthcare and shelter services, exacerbating the suffering and mortality of affected populations.
Mapping these patterns is essential for identifying trends and anticipating future threats, allowing humanitarian organisations to adapt their operations and enhance civilian protection; but it also reveals some patterns of disregard for protected status, raising questions about accountability. By understanding the spatial patterns of such violence, the international community can better advocate for stronger adherence to IHL, strengthen preventative measures, and prioritise more robust protection of civilians.
Key Locations and Weapon Types
With the event locations reported above, the next phase of the analysis zooms into five key locations, which are protected under IHL and examines attacks against them in each of the conflict-affected areas. The areas being explored are humanitarian infrastructure, encampments, places of worship, schools, and hospitals. The following table shows that approximately 1 in 4 events with a known location takes place in these five types, with almost 13,000 casualties in one year, and the most common locations for targeting being encampments and hospitals.
It is important to consider the different weapon types and launch methods in order to understand their impact on civilian infrastructure and populations, as well as the potential complicity of arms exporters in their use. Air-launched weapons, such as missiles, bombs, and broader air strikes are often highly destructive and more capable of precision targeting in armed conflict; however, their use in populated areas – as is the case in this conflict– could lead to larger levels of collateral damage. Ground-launched mechanisms, such as artillery and rockets vary in their accuracy, but can cause wide disruption to critical infrastructure, such as roads and power supply stations.
While IEDs are typically smaller in scale, they maintain a relatively unpredictable outcome and often lead to significant casualties and damage to nearby structures, particularly in public areas. When multiple weapon types are employed simultaneously, the compounded effects can overwhelm emergency services and humanitarian responses, leaving affected communities with long-term disruptions and vulnerabilities.
Incidents and Cases of IDF Review
The indiscriminate or disproportionate use of such weapons in civilian areas raises critical concerns under IHL, which mandates minimising harm to civilian life and infrastructure during armed conflict. Understanding the capabilities and consequences of these weapon systems is essential for strengthening protection measures and enhancing accountability mechanisms, including for arms exporters.
Among such incidents are a few that have been reported widely upon, and in response to public opinion, some are being or have been investigated or brought under review by the IDF. This includes the explosion at Al-Ahli Hospital, which took place in mid-October 2023, and is reported to have killed more than 100 people, which resulted from a missile or rocket. This incident remains highly contested, even after a brief investigation conducted by the IDF.
Not long after, the IDF has reportedly lodged a review into its operational decisions, following an airstrike on Al-Shati camp in late October 2023, which led to large-scale civilian casualties, and said it would seek to comply with IHL in this regard.
Similarly, there had been IDF investigations into the bombing of Jabalia refugee camp, where the ID launched a probe into intelligence and proportionality, as well as strikes on the Rafah border crossing, which affected civilians and aid convoys in November 2023 and February 2024, in addition to targeting of UNRWA and MSF facilities in the first half of 2024. In response to such incidents, the IDF has announced that it would examine them within a broader review of operations in populated areas, yet no outcomes had been reported.
Moreover, an airstrike in Deir al-Balah in April 2024 killed seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen, which was investigated by the IDF, who later admitted that there were several errors in miscommunication and identification, and they stated that lessons will be learned to protect humanitarian workers. However, a similar attack took place against humanitarians from the same organisation in late November 2024, under claims of targeting a terrorist who had taken part in October 7 attacks.
UK arms trade
With this background in mind, and building on AOAV’s report “Who is arming Israel?” and other relevant research by Campaign Against Arms Trade, it is crucial to examine how the UK’s arms trade with Israel can be indirectly contributing to civilian casualties. Although the UK may not explicitly provide weapons to Israel, as per some datasets on major conventional weapons transfers, it does authorise licences for component parts of some lethal weapons, which includes components for the F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets.
While exporting components may seem more benign than entire weapons or weapon systems, the volume of licences cannot be neglected, and the UK’s contribution to each F-35 jet is estimated at around 15%, with major arms producers like BAE Systems, MBDA, and Rolls Royce providing crucial parts.
In September, the UK Government announced the immediate suspension of approximately 30 out of 350 licences of exports to the IDF, building on assessments that such weapons pose a clear risk of being used in violations of IHL in Gaza. However, although the suspension included components for unmanned aerial vehicles and targeting equipment, it excluded components of the F-35 fighter jet, which falls under the Open General Export Licences. The grounds for this exclusion have been due to the F-35 systems being “integral to international security” and the inclination to avoid disrupting global supply chains.
Conclusion
The analysis of violence in Gaza between October 2023 and October 2024 underscores the devastating impact of armed conflict on civilian populations, infrastructure, and international norms. With over 4,100 incidents of explosive violence recorded across the region, particularly in Gaza, the disproportionate effects on civilians—especially women and vulnerable groups—are evident. The targeting of protected locations such as hospitals, schools, and humanitarian infrastructure raises serious questions about compliance with IHL. Air-launched and ground-launched weapons, while potentially precise, have caused widespread destruction due to their use in densely populated areas, resulting in significant collateral damage and raising concerns over arms trade practices.
The patterns of violence mapped in this study reveal systematic risks to civilians and critical services, exacerbated by the continuous displacement and destruction of basic infrastructure. Efforts by the IDF to review operational decisions, while important, remain insufficient in addressing the root causes or preventing further violations. Furthermore, the role of arms exporters in supplying components for weapons used in this conflict highlights the global dimensions of accountability. While the UK government has taken steps to suspend some export licenses, ongoing sales of critical components, such as those for F-35 fighter jets, raise questions about the balance between global security partnerships and potential complicity in violations of IHL.
By understanding these dynamics and promoting adherence to IHL, the international community must strengthen mechanisms for monitoring compliance with IHL, better respond to humanitarian needs, advocate for accountability, and work towards sustainable strategies for conflict prevention and civilian protection in Gaza and beyond.