Attachments
Crisis Group experts Robert Blecher and Chris Newton explain a key international body’s recent findings about starvation and famine risks in Gaza, and what Israel should do to address them
The “special snapshot” issued on 12 May by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system – the UN-coordinated global hunger measuring stick – reveals all 2.1 million Gazans face life-threatening food insecurity, with nearly a quarter starving. This stems from 19 months of brutal war following Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel, with Israel constraining aid and commercial goods entry before imposing a total ban on 2 March to advance its war aims. Though the Israeli government officially rejects the snapshot’s findings, elements within its own army seem to broadly concur.
This IPC exercise took the Israeli aid plan floated on 5 May, later rebranded a U.S. initiative, as a starting point for its food security projections. The plan transfers responsibility for aid distribution from the UN and humanitarian agencies to a new organisation supported by private security contractors and protected by the Israeli army. It would reduce distribution sites by roughly 99 per cent and initially provide minimal assistance only in southern Gaza to just 60 per cent of the total population. The snapshot concludes that even successful implementation of the plan would intensify Gaza’s mass starvation, while universal life-threatening food insecurity persists. Although it does not declare famine, the snapshot presents a second scenario in which continued blockade with Israeli military escalation pushes the Strip into famine, causing rapid death from starvation and disease. The snapshot does not discuss what happens if the new aid system fails—an outcome widely anticipated by humanitarians. This would almost certainly cause famine, too.
The normally low-profile Famine Review Committee offered unprecedented public comment on the snapshot. They appear to caution against treating IPC famine projections and warnings as political switches triggering temporary aid increases (as happened after the Committee said famine was “imminent” in March and November 2024) only for Israeli restrictions to intensify after a brief and shallow recovery. Despite critics’ claims of alarmism, evidence shows these warnings accurately identified risks that were mitigated only when Israel temporarily eased restrictions in response.
The Committee also warns that calibrating aid to keep Gaza just below famine is high-risk: any shortfall could trigger “rapid and uncontrollable collapse into famine”. This reflects a critical reality: holding populations in prolonged semi-starvation always risks massive mortality from starvation and disease – the latter being the primary killer in contemporary famines.
The absence of a formal famine declaration means neither the absence of starvation nor that Gaza is not on the brink. By IPC metrics, a Gaza famine designation now hinges on whether death rates or measures of acute malnutrition cross a statistical threshold in an already starving population. Debating between imminent or declared famine only distracts from two core realities: Israel has weaponised starvation and Palestinians face enormous risk because of it. Starvation is inflicting lifelong damage on Gaza’s children with potential intergenerational consequences. Reversing this trajectory requires Israel to immediately end the blockade and not repeat it. Gaza cannot afford another cycle of famine warning, temporary relief and return to starvation.