By Professor Mike Spagat on 24 Sep 2024
The Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) has released a new, detailed list of 34,344 Gazans reportedly killed in the ongoing war since October 7, marking a significant improvement in the accuracy and quality of casualty reporting. The report, covering deaths between October 7 and August 31, represents a step forward compared to earlier releases, particularly those from the period between January and April, which were criticised for inconsistencies and incomplete data.
In the immediate aftermath of the war’s outbreak, the MoH’s first casualty report in October was praised for its high quality, with NGO Airwars corroborating its accuracy. However, the quality of subsequent reports deteriorated
Many victims were listed without ages, and a significant number of entries were flagged for missing or invalid ID numbers. The MoH’s latest release shows marked improvement, with each entry now including age, sex, and an ID number, though there are still minor issues. Around 92 entries have fewer than the required nine digits for IDs, and 255 have invalid nine-digit sequences. These problematic entries account for just 1% of the listed deaths.
One of the key challenges in the MoH’s casualty reporting has been a persistent gap between the overall number of deaths reported and those documented individually in detailed lists. By early April, this gap reached nearly 11,000 deaths. However, recent efforts by the MoH have reduced this discrepancy to about 6,400.
New information indicates that the gap arose primarily during periods when hospitals were overwhelmed, and MoH staff had to rely on headcounts of bodies rather than detailed records, particularly when computer systems were down. The ministry has since worked to replace these aggregate numbers with individually documented deaths.
I have revised my earlier view that the true death toll might be either higher or lower than the official totals announced regularly by the MoH in response to the new information about the gap. I now believe that the true death toll almost certainly exceeds the official total.
In terms of demographics, the new list closely mirrors the April 30 report. Of the 34,344 deaths recorded, 11,355 are children under 18, 20,034 are adults between 18 and 59, and 2,955 are elderly individuals over 59.
Further breakdowns show 6,419 boys, 4,936 girls, 13,737 men, 6,297 women, 1,818 elderly men, and 1,137 elderly women.
Adult males aged 18 to 59 make up nearly 40% of the total victims.
Summary:
- The Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) released a detailed list of 34,344 deaths since October 7.
- The initial October release was highly accurate, as confirmed by NGO Airwars, but later reports saw a decline in quality, with missing age data and invalid ID numbers.
- The latest release (October 7 – August 31) shows significant improvements, with only 1% of entries featuring problematic ID numbers.
- The gap between reported totals and individually listed deaths, which peaked at nearly 11,000 in April, has been reduced to 6,400.
- The gap arose due to headcounts taken during overwhelmed periods in hospitals, with the MoH later working to replace these numbers with more detailed individual records.
- The demographics of the latest list remain consistent, with 40% of the deaths being adult males aged 18-59.
- The true death toll in the Gaza war almost certainly exceeds the totals announced officially by the MoH.
Michael Spagat, Professor of Economics at Royal Holloway, University of London, holds a Ph.D. from Harvard and has published extensively on armed conflict, with current research focusing on universal war patterns, survey fabrication, civilian casualties, and war death measurement.