Attachments
OVERVIEW OF THE AGREEMENT
The Palestinian Authority (PA) has reached an agreement to conclude its security operation in the northern West Bank town of Jenin. The operation, which commenced last month (December 2024), aimed to reassert PA control over the city, particularly targeting armed groups entrenched within the Jenin refugee camp.
Palestinian Armed Forces (PAF) have now been deployed inside the camp, marking a significant development in the region's security landscape. This move is part of the PA's broader strategy to curb the influence of militant factions and restore order to an area long considered a stronghold for armed resistance.
CHALLENGES IN IMPLEMENTATION
Despite the agreement's provisions, the implementation process faces significant challenges. Deep-seated mistrust between the PA and militant groups, such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), has led to their refusal to comply with disarmament, with PIJ accusing the PA of aligning with Israeli interests, further complicating enforcement efforts.
Community resistance within the Jenin refugee camp adds to the challenges, as many residents see the PA’s security efforts as an infringement on their autonomy, potentially leading to unrest and clashes that could undermine the agreement. The presence of multiple armed factions with differing agendas further complicates enforcement, with some groups refusing to comply and others leveraging the situation for political gain, increasing the risk of localized confrontations.
External factors, including potential Israeli intervention if PA actions are deemed inadequate, and international pres- sure to maintain security without excessive force, also hinder implementation. Additionally, ongoing arms smuggling through porous borders continues to undermine disarmament efforts by allowing militants to replenish their stock- piles.
Internal political rivalries within Palestinian leadership, particularly between factions such as Fatah and Hamas, fur- ther obstruct a cohesive security strategy, complicating the PA's ability to enforce the agreement effectively.
SECURITY IMPACT ON THE OCCUPIED WEST BANK
The developments in Jenin have broader security implications for the entire occupied West Bank. Jenin has long been viewed as a flashpoint of resistance and militancy, and any significant security shifts in the city could trigger ripple effects across other areas. The PA’s ability to enforce control in Jenin will serve as a key indicator of its capacity to implement security policies in other restive governorates, such as Nablus and Hebron, where armed groups also maintain a strong presence.
Failure to fully implement the agreement or a resurgence of violence could embolden militant factions elsewhere in the West Bank, potentially leading to a coordinated escalation of resistance activities. Armed groups may use the situation in Jenin to rally support and expand their influence, undermining the PA’s broader authority across the re- gion. Additionally, public perception of the PA’s security cooperation with Israel could spark widespread protests and civil unrest in multiple West Bank cities, further destabilizing the region.
From an Israeli security perspective, the situation in Jenin could impact border security and internal operations. An uptick in violence may prompt Israeli forces to increase military incursions into PA-controlled areas, leading to heightened tensions and undermining existing coordination mechanisms. Furthermore, international stakeholders and regional actors may intervene diplomatically or militarily if instability in the West Bank reaches a critical level, affecting the security dynamics throughout the occupied West Bank.