Attachments
Key Messages
- The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is extremely grave and rapidly deteriorating.
- There is a strong likelihood that famine is imminent in areas within the northern Gaza Strip.
- Immediate action, within days not weeks, is required from all actors who are directly taking part in the conflict, or have influence on its conduct, to avert and alleviate this catastrophic situation.
Introduction
This Famine Review Committee (FRC) alert is issued to express concern about an imminent and substantial likelihood of famine occurring, due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Gaza Strip. While an IPC update will be conducted, this Alert serves to draw immediate attention on the need to take urgent action to alleviate this humanitarian catastrophe in areas of the northern Gaza Strip.
Justification
The IPC analysis team published their latest Snapshot Report on the situation in the Gaza Strip on 17 October 2024. The report classified the entire Gaza Strip in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) acute food insecurity, with IPC Phase 3 (Serious) level of acute malnutrition in September – October 2024. One hundred and thirty-three thousand people were classified as facing catastrophic food insecurity. The analysis team also conducted a risk of Famine analysis and concluded that, under a reasonable worst-case scenario, a risk of Famine existed for the whole of the Gaza Strip between November 2024 and April 2025. The reasonable worst-case scenario developed for the northern area of the Gaza Strip (Gaza and North Gaza governorates) is shown in the excerpt below.
An escalation and intensification of the hostilities would occur, with higher frequency and duration, resulting in expanded ground operations and increasing levels of destruction and lethality. Evacuation orders would be issued for all civilians in the governorates, leading to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people to the middle governorates. This would also include a complete halt of commercial trucks, following the downward trend already observed recently. Similarly, humanitarian assistance would significantly decrease, to a near halt. Social safety nets would collapse, and civil unrest would likely increase.
Since the conclusion of the last IPC analysis, a number of significant developments have taken place, including:
Conflict and displacement
On 6 October 2024, Israel designated all of the northern Gaza Strip as a combat zone and ordered the entire civilian population to evacuate. On 7 October 2024, a UN Spokesperson stated that many people in northern Gaza were “trapped” in their homes and were unable to flee the combat area. Médecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) also reported that staff members were trapped in Jabalia, stating, “Nobody is allowed to get in or out; anyone who tries is getting shot”. Repeated evacuation orders for the northern Gaza Strip have been issued since the start of October 2024.
Food availability
Food availability in the Gaza strip needs to be considered in a context where food systems have collapsed. According to OCHA data, the number of aid shipments being let into the Gaza Strip (data up to 27 October 2024) is lower now than at any time since October 2023. Data made available by the Israeli COGAT (Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories) on humanitarian and ‘commercial’ shipments also agrees that shipments are at the lowest level since the start of the war. The WFP market monitoring report for the second half of October indicates that the average number of trucks entering the Gaza Strip fell to just 58 per day, the lowest level since November 2023. It is worth noting that the level of supplies entering the Gaza Strip in October 2024 is lower than the amounts that were permitted in early 2024, a period during which acute food security and acute malnutrition rapidly deteriorated and famine was projected in the northern governorates. The available data from different sources show that the food supply across the entire Gaza Strip has sharply deteriorated. The FRC is particularly concerned about availability of food in areas affected by high intensity conflict.