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Overview
One year into the conflict, the risk of Famine persists across the whole Gaza Strip. Given the recent surge in hostilities, there are growing concerns that this worstcase scenario may materialize.
Violence has displaced nearly 2 million people, decimated livelihoods, crippled food systems, destroyed 70 percent of crop fields, severely restricted humanitarian operations and resulted in the collapse of health services and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) systems. Catastrophic acute food insecurity and concerning acute malnutrition levels will continue to prevail if the conflict continues, and humanitarian activities are restricted.
Between September and October 2024, the whole territory is classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). About 1.84 million people across the Gaza Strip are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above, including nearly 133,000 people facing catastrophic food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) and 664,000, in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Acute Malnutrition is at serious levels (IPC AMN Phase 3), ten times higher than before the escalation of the hostilities.
Nearly the entire population has been displaced multiple times, often under continued shelling and aerial bombardments. Many households, especially the most vulnerable, are unable to relocate or find safe shelter. The majority are living in temporary makeshift camps with an alarming density of almost 40,000 people per square kilometer. The evacuation orders and the military offensive, which further intensified in the past weeks have significantly disrupted humanitarian operations, and repeated displacements have steadily worn-down people’s ability to cope and access food, water and medicine, deepening the vulnerability of entire communities.
A temporary surge of humanitarian assistance and commercial supply between May and August 2024 partly alleviated acute food insecurity and malnutrition conditions. However, September saw the lowest volume of commercial and humanitarian supplies entering Gaza since March 2024. This sharp decline will profoundly limit food availability and the ability of families to feed themselves and access services in the next few months. The upcoming winter season is expected to bring colder temperatures along with rain and potential flooding. Seasonal diseases and increasingly limited access to water and health services are likely to worsen acute malnutrition, especially in densely populated areas, where the risk of epidemics is already high.
The population classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) is expected to nearly triple in the coming months. Between November 2024 and April 2025, almost 2 million people, more than 90 percent of the population, are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above, of which 345,000 people (16 percent) are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), and 876,000 people (41 percent) in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Although less populated, Rafah and the northern governorates will likely face more severe acute food insecurity.
Acute malnutrition is expected to worsen in all governorates, driven by seasonal diseases in high-density population settings alongside reduced assistance to children and pregnant and breastfeeding women. In Rafah, the deterioration is expected to reach critical level (IPC AMN Phase 4). Prioritizing children’s meals over adults, and the inflow of life-saving nutrition assistance, including blanket supplementary feeding of children with fortified, high-calorie foods have been crucial to reverse the deterioration of acute malnutrition. Nonetheless, the expected reduction of humanitarian assistance, soaring food prices, reduced access to fresh food, and the collapse of the health and WASH systems are expected to have a negative impact on the nutrition situation in the projected period. Among children aged 6 to 59 months, an estimated 60,000 cases of acute malnutrition, of which 12,000 severe cases, are expected between September 2024 and August 2025.
The risk of Famine between November 2024 and April 2025 persists as long as conflict continues, and humanitarian access is restricted. The extreme concentration of population in an ever-shrinking area, living in improvised shelters with intermittent access to humanitarian supplies and services, elevates the risk of epidemic outbreaks and deterioration into a catastrophe of unprecedented magnitude. Attacks on camps, shelters and infrastructure across the Gaza strip, as well as renewed evacuation orders in North Gaza in the past two weeks, are already increasing the likelihood of this worst-case scenario occurring