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Nineteen months into the conflict, the Gaza Strip is still confronted with a critical risk of Famine. Over 60 days have passed since all humanitarian aid and commercial supplies were blocked from entering the territory. Goods indispensable for people’s survival are either depleted or expected to run out in the coming weeks. The entire population is facing high levels of acute food insecurity, with half a million people (one in five) facing starvation.
From 11 May to the end of September 2025, the whole territory is classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with the entire population expected to face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). This includes 470,000 people (22 percent of the population) in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), over a million people (54 percent) in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and the remaining half million (24 percent) in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This marks a significant deterioration compared to the previous IPC analysis (released in October 2024) and the already dire conditions detected between 1 April - 10 May 2025. During this time, 1.95 million people (93 percent) were classified in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 244,000 people (12 percent) in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 925,000 (44 percent) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).
Between 1 April and 10 May, acute malnutrition (AMN) was at Alert and Serious levels (IPC AMN Phase 2 and 3). However, experience has shown that acute malnutrition can worsen rapidly, and latest data indicate a deteriorating trend that is expected to persist. Consequently, acute malnutrition in North Gaza, Gaza and Rafah governorates will likely reach Critical levels (IPC AMN Phase 4) between 11 May and end of September.
Between mid-January and mid-March 2025, the ceasefire allowed a temporary alleviation of acute food insecurity and malnutrition conditions in parts of the Gaza Strip. However, the ongoing blockade imposed in early March reversed the situation. Since 18 March, the escalating conflict has displaced over 430,000 people, further disrupted access to humanitarian assistance, markets, health, water and sanitation services, and caused additional damage to remaining essential infrastructure. All 25 bakeries supported by the World Food Programme (WFP) closed at the beginning of April due to lack of supplies, and food stocks for most of the 177 hot meal kitchens are reportedly exhausted. All preventive nutrition supplies have run out in UNICEF and WFP warehouses. Food prices are soaring daily, with wheat flour ranging from USD $235 per 25 kg in Deir al-Balah to USD $520 in Gaza and Khan Younis - a 3,000 percent increase since February 2025. Latest data show many households resorting to extreme coping strategies. A third reported collecting garbage to sell for food, while a quarter indicated that no valuable garbage remains. Observations reveal that social order is breaking down.
The plan announced on 5 May by Israeli authorities for delivering food and non-food items across the governorates is estimated to be highly insufficient to meet the population’s essential needs for food, water, shelter and medicine.
Moreover, the proposed distribution mechanisms are likely to create significant access barriers for large segments of the population. In light of the announced large-scale military operation across the Gaza Strip and the persistent inability of humanitarian agencies to deliver essential goods and services, there is a high risk that Famine (IPC Phase 5) will occur in the projection period (11 May – 30 September). The latest announcements suggest that this worst-case scenario is becoming more likely.
Immediate action is essential to prevent further deaths, starvation and acute malnutrition, and a descent into Famine. This entails ending hostilities, ensuring unrestricted humanitarian access, restoring essential services and commercial flows, and providing sufficient lifesaving assistance to all in need.