KEY DEVELOPMENTS
On 15 January 2025, mediators announced a ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas that, if fully implemented, would end the 15-month conflict that began on 7 October 2023. The ceasefire is expected to come into effect on 19 January, with Israel’s security cabinet approving the agreement on 17 January (AJ 17/01/2025; The Guardian 16/01/2025 and 17/01/2025).
The exact details of the agreement have not been published. The six-week first phase is anticipated to involve a cessation of hostilities, return of around 33 hostages held by Hamas, release of an unconfirmed number of Palestinian prisoners detained by Israel, free movement of Gazans within Gaza, withdrawal of Israeli forces to Gaza’s perimeters, and a surge in humanitarian aid. Negotiations around the details of the second and third stages are expected to commence by day 16 of the first phase. It is reported that the second phase will involve a permanent end to the conflict and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops, leaving the long-term reconstruction of Gaza to the third phase (BBC 16/01/2025; AJ 17/01/2025). These details have not been confirmed by the actual text of the agreement, however, only reported by the media.
As of 17 January, fighting remained intense since the ceasefire announcement, with nearly 113 Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks on Gaza, including women, children, and humanitarian and healthcare workers (AJ 17/01/2025; RI 16/01/2025; Christian Aid 16/01/2025).
OVERVIEW: NEEDS AND RISKS
While an influx of aid and a cessation of hostilities will reduce threats to Gazans, humanitarian needs will remain severe, access will likely remain limited, and deaths will continue to occur throughout the first phase of the ceasefire. After years of conflict and blockade, humanitarian needs were already high in Gaza prior to 7 October 2023, with 45% unemployment and 81% of Gazans reporting challenges meeting their basic needs according to the 2022 Multisectoral Needs Assessment (OCHA 25/01/2023; FAO 02/12/2024). 15 months of conflict has significantly aggravated needs across all sectors, leaving 1.9 million people (90% of Gaza’s 2.1 million inhabitants) displaced, 1.95 million (95% of the population) facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse levels of food insecurity, and 92% of housing units (436,000) destroyed (OCHA 14/01/2025).
Between 7 October 2023 and 14 January 2025, Gaza’s Ministry of Health (MoH) reported that at least 46,645 Palestinians in Gaza, including between 14,500–17,820 children, had been killed. Given constrained MoH capacity and the thousands of bodies buried under rubble, a recent study estimates that the likely death toll from traumatic injury alone is around 40% higher than MoH estimates, bringing this toll to over 70,000 people (OCHA 14/01/2025; UNICEF 15/01/2025; STC 15/01/2025; Jamaluddine et al. 09/01/2025). This figure does not include indirect deaths from conflict-related health problems, which are conservatively estimated to be up to five times higher than direct deaths (Khatib et al. 10/07/2024). Even with an influx of assistance, indirect deaths will continue throughout the ceasefire.
Once the ceasefire begins, priority aid includes food, nutrition, WASH assistance, shelter materials, NFIs (particularly cold weather NFIs), and medical supplies and equipment. Fuel is urgently required to restore the functioning of health facilities, WASH infrastructure, bakeries, humanitarian aid delivery, and other life-saving operations. Needs will be particularly severe in North Gaza, where an estimated 10,000–15,000 people remain under siege with effectively no access to assistance or basic services (ACLED 14/01/2025; UNRWA 12/01/2025).