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CRISIS OVERVIEW
The 2024–2025 winter season (November–March) comes at a time when Israeli air strikes and ground invasion have displaced at least 90% (around 1.9 million) of Palestinians in Gaza and damaged or destroyed around 60% of residential buildings, 80% of commercial facilities, and 68% of the road network (OCHA 02/10/2024 a; iDMC 14/05/2024; UNRWA 11/10/2024). Many of the displaced are in tents or temporary shelters that afford little protection against the winter elements, and some are living in the open with no shelter. This increases their susceptibility to the health and safety risks linked to the lower temperatures and heavier rainfall of winter (Palestine Shelter Cluster 28/06/2024; El País 23/09/2024; OCHA 30/09/2024).
Gaza experiences the most precipitation between December–February. Since 2008, variable rainfall has caused severe flooding during winter, a trend expected to continue given the significant infrastructure damage. The increase in rainfall during the season will present a high risk to flood-prone areas, where approximately 850,000 people are in danger of further displacement and exposure to safety hazards and diseases (OCHA 30/09/2024 and 20/09/2024; IFRC 2024).
With infrastructure damage and fuel shortages severely diminishing Gaza’s wastewater management capacity, winter rainfall will likely increase exposure to wastewater and further contaminate water sources. This is expected to affect health needs and increase the spread of infectious diseases (Palestine WASH Cluster 10/09/2024; OCHA 16/01/2024; Anera 21/03/2024; Anera accessed 06/10/2024). Compounding this are a surge of hepatitis A cases and the detection of poliovirus, two highly contagious diseases that can spread through contaminated drinking water and wastewater exposure (BBC 26/08/2024; CDC 25/01/2024; Cleveland Clinic accessed 15/10/2024; OCHA 16/01/2024; WHO 11/10/2024).
Winter temperatures in Gaza can drop to as low as 6° C (Palestine Shelter Cluster 28/06/2024; CNN 13/12/2023; IFRC 2024). The colder weather is likely to aggravate overcrowding in available shelters, increasing the risk of the spread of pathogens that cause respiratory infections and other communicable diseases (CNN 13/12/2023; UNICEF 02/2024; ActionAid 22/03/2024; UNRWA 30/07/2024). Colder weather also increases the risk of fire incidents as more activities using firewood, such as cooking, occur inside shelters, often not sufficiently equipped (UNEP 18/06/2024 a; OCHA 08/10/2024 and 18/09/2024). At the same time, severe energy shortages are expected to increase waste burning for heating. This activity releases hazardous substances, such as dioxins and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, into the atmosphere, heightening the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases (Palestine Shelter Cluster 28/06/2024; OCHA 18/09/2024).
The possible increase in health needs during the winter season comes at a time when Gaza’s health system is already heavily depleted, both in terms of human resources and infrastructure. By October 2024, around 19 of the 36 hospitals in Gaza were out of service, while the remaining 17 hospitals were only partially functional (OCHA 22/10/2024; WHO 30/09/2024). The Gaza Health Ministry estimates that Israeli attacks have killed close to 1,000 health workers since October 2023, complicating the winter response when diseases are expected to significantly increase (OCHA 08/10/2024).