West Africa Food Security Outlook June 2019 to January 2020
Despite ongoing civil insecurity, the agricultural season has started across the region
• Improved rainfall during the first and second dekads of July allowed widespread planting and weeding in the Sahelian and Sudanese zones. Crop development varies from sprouting to early growth in the Sudanese zone. Seasonal cumulative rainfall indicates that rainfall has been average to aboveaverageover most of the region. Deficits are small in most affected areas except in western Mauritania, central and northern Senegal where they are severe. Fall Armyworm infestations reported in Burkina Faso and Chad are under control.
• Ongoing pasture regeneration and surface water availability are significantly reducing livestock feeding difficulties, however, in western Mauritania and northern Senegal, where the lean season started early, livestock feeding remains a concern. In the Liptako-Gourma region and the greater Lake Chad basin, conflict and civil insecurity continue to negatively impact livestock movements.
• In markets, demand is experiencing a slight seasonal increase, but well below the usual increase. Prices remain below last year and similar to slightly below average in most countries due to good stock levels and low institutional purchases.
However, they remain atypically high in conflict areas and in the Tibesti region of Chad, where market flows and operations are disrupted. In the future, demand will experience a seasonal increase as well as prices, but will not exceed last year's levels; they will generally follow the seasonal trend.
• Most of the region will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until September 2019. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) will continue until September, for poor households in Niger in the northwestern Tahoua region and the southern Tillabéry region, in Mali in the rice growing areas of the Niger Delta and in the Timbuktu River Valley in Gao due to the poor harvests in 2018/19. Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) affects host and internally displaced households in northern and central Burkina Faso, poor households in southern Mopti and Gao in Mali and the Diffa region of Niger through food assistance as insecurity continues to disrupt markets and livelihood activities. However, many IDPs still are not able access their agricultural fields or humanitarian aid in Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad and Nigeria.
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) affecting the Tibesti region may improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in August with the resumption of trade flows with Libya. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will remain until September in the regions around Lake Chad, theTillabéry region of Niger, CAR and Cameroon due to armed conflicts and/or civil insecurity that significantly disrupt household livelihoods. Households in northeastern Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict continue to depend on humanitarian aid for access to food and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) particularly in Borno State and incidentally Yobé State. In adjacent areas that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, the food situation could be similar or worse.