From the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Predicting the future impacts of climate change is a difficult business. Even determining the future physical effects is fraught because of the complexity of the Earth’s climate system and the imperfections of current climate models. In addition, while some places may have less physical exposure to climate change risk than others, their lack of resources for adaptation projects or other factors such as a history of ethnic conflict may render them more vulnerable. Vulnerability has two components, then: physical exposure and adaptive capacity.
It is commonplace in the discourse on global climate change to say that Africa will be the most vulnerable location worldwide, because of poverty, environmental degradation, and conflict. However, Africa is a large and diverse continent. To make meaningful contributions to the policy debate on Africa it is insufficient to say, “Africa will be vulnerable to climate change;” researchers must determine which areas in Africa will be vulnerable and for what reasons.
This paper builds on the climate change vulnerability mapping work of the Robert S. Strauss Center on International Security and Law’s Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) program. The CCAPS program takes data on climate-related hazard exposure, population density, and the adaptive capacity of governments and households, and uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to identify the areas of highest composite vulnerability. This paper applies the CCAPS methodology to West Africa to investigate vulnerability at the sub-regional level rather than the continental level. Since West Africa has unique climate characteristics and historical climate data for the region are limited, global climate models do not capture regional weather patterns effectively. For this reason, this paper’s primary addition to the model is in the area of adaptive capacity.
This paper expands on the CCAPS vulnerability index by incorporating new data related to the political economy of governments as it may relate to their willingness and ability to adapt to climate change. Specifically, it adds dependence on oil and mineral extraction and ethnic and religious diversity to measures of governance. These variables have a unique role in the political dynamics of the West Africa region. Moreover, the negative effect they have on governance takes place independent of changes in leadership or political structure, making them superior forecasters of governance quality. We further expand on the CCAPS program by exploring different mapping techniques such as difference mapping and cluster analysis. The paper concludes with two country case studies on Nigeria and Guinea-Bissau, which both consistently rank among the most vulnerable places according to our vulnerability index.
With the addition of our new oil and mineral dependency and ethno-religious diversity variables, two countries appear more vulnerable than in previous estimations: Nigeria (particularly northern Nigeria) and Côte d’Ivoire. Meanwhile, cluster analysis indicates that the highest concentration of vulnerability is located along the West African coast in areas with high ethnic and religious diversity. Incidentally, these countries also share a history of civil and ethnic conflicts. These areas include Nigeria’s Niger Delta, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea-Bissau.