Nigeria Security Situation Analysis Report - An 18 Months Report of Violent Conflicts in Nigeria from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database (January 2021 – December 2021) and (January 2022 – June 2022)


Executive Summary

Nigeria is enduring a rise in insecurity. While armed actors establish new killing fields, regular violent hotspots have continued to record new incidents. The key violent drivers are either distinct to regions or cut across various locations. For example, there is increasing banditry in the Northwest and Northcentral regions, insurgency in the Northeast, violent secession agitations in the Southeast, and gang wars in the Southwest and south-south zones. Furthermore, there are pockets of extra-judicial killings and communal wars nationwide. The age-long farmer-herders crisis has also lingered, adding to the security and socio-economic challenges in the conflict area and beyond. Nigeria’s violent crisis continues to deepen with new incidents and increasing fatalities.

Violent conflicts in Nigeria have birthed new consequences, further reinforcing the nation’s security threats. Several communities have been turned into piles of ruin, with their residents forcefully displaced. The affected population face a significant humanitarian crisis, which increases their vulnerability to armed conflicts as potential perpetrators and victims. The Nigerian state’s ability to uphold the social contract is significantly threatened by the proliferation of non-state armed groups (NSAGs).

Successive governments have implemented different strategies and programmes. While the federal government deployed kinetic and non-kinetic measures, some state governments created regional and state-level quasi-security units to complement traditional security agencies. The government extended peace deals to armed groups, especially in the northwest northcentral and south south regions. Yet, there are brazen attacks on hard and soft targets. Non-state armed actors continue to threaten Nigeria’s ability to serve as a security guarantor to its citizens. Given the terror trajectory across the country, various self-defence militias have emerged with mixed results. In this period, Nigeria experienced a spike in the number and activities of armed actors.

Starting in 2020, Nextier has maintained a database of violent conflicts in Nigeria. The database tracks violent conflicts such as banditry, terrorism, extra-judicial killings, farmer-herder incidents, armed robbery, cultism, piracy, secession agitation, and communal clashes. The Nextier Violent Conflict Database aims to provide detailed insights into violent conflicts in Nigeria for research, policy advocacy, development and security. It is Nextier’s objective that reliable data should inform policy actions. Therefore, the database is a veritable source for crucial sector players and decision-makers seeking to deploy evidence-informed prevention and mitigation strategies in addressing Nigeria’s rising violent conflicts.

This report presents tracked Data from Nextier’s Violent Conflict Database from January 2021 to June 2022 (18 months). There are two sections in the report (Part A and B). Part A covers the period from January to December 2021, while Part B covers the period from January to June 2022. Charts are used to analyse tracked data, and statements are backed up by pertinent literature. The paper highlights Nigeria’s existential security concerns and offers workable answers to the country’s security and development problems.