Attachments
Key Messages
- Increased levels of insecurity in Northern Nigeria over 2024, marked by banditry, attacks, kidnappings, and other punitive measures, continues to forcibly displace local populations. According to the latest estimates by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), over three million people remain internally displaced across northern Nigeria. Insecurity is limiting households’ access to food and income sources by reducing access to fields, disrupting the flow of goods to markets and market functioning, and leading to the loss of assets due to theft or pillaging. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist across conflict-affected parts of North East, North West, and North Central Nigeria.
- Northeast Nigeria continues to be impacted by ongoing insecurity related to Boko Haram insurgency. Due to insecurity, including extortion by armed groups, households face highly restricted access to land for agricultural production. This has led to significantly below-average agricultural production in 2024 and further increases in food prices. Trade flows and market access remain disrupted, further limiting food access and income-generating opportunities. In inaccessible areas of Borno State, including Abadam, Guzamala, Marte, and Bama LGAs, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to persist in the post-harvest period as households had extremely limited ability to engage in the 2024/25 agricultural season.
- The main season harvest is underway across Nigeria, accompanied by the commencement of off-season land preparation activities in northern regions. However, early dry spells and late-season flooding negatively impacted main-season production. During the peak of flooding in September, 3.8 million hectares of land were submerged, including nearly 1.5 million hectares of cropland, impacting over 4 million people. The most impacted states in terms of flooded cropland—Kebbi, Jigawa, Borno, Taraba, and Sokoto—have had between 7.5 percent and 12.3 percent of their agricultural land flooded. Potential production losses are significant, with maize losses alone estimated at 486,000 tons, resulting in approximately $250 million in economic damages (FAO). In addition to quantity losses, quality losses will negatively impact agricultural income and food consumption through sales and consumption of poor-quality crops that could still be harvested once floodwaters receded.
- Inflationary pressures in Nigeria continue to mount, with headline inflation increasing to 33.88 percent in October from 32.70 percent in September, marking a 6.55 percentage point rise year-on-year. Annual food inflation remains the largest driver, peaking at 39.16 percent, with the highest rates recorded in Sokoto (52.18 percent), Edo (46.55 percent), and Borno (45.85 percent). According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the price of rice trended at nearly 140 percent above last year’s price. According to the Central Bank, the Nigerian Naira (NGN) hit a record low in mid-November, trading at 1,688 NGN/USD, and reportedly reaching 1,730 NGN/USD on the parallel market. Petrol prices averaged 1,184 NGN per liter in October, reflecting an 87.88 percent year-on-year increase and a 14.98 percent rise from September, leading to high transportation prices.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Nigeria Key Message Update November 2024: Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists across northern Nigeria, 2024.