Prolonged conflict in the North East continues to disrupt livelihoods, limit dry season cultivation, and drive new displacements, sustainingelevated food assistance needsduring the dry season and localized Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. In Borno State, intensified conflict against ISWAP/Boko Haram, along with increased use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Mobbar local government area (LGA), have triggered population movements and restricted access to residual moisture farming. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), approximately 340 people were displaced in the first half of January 2026 due to fear of attacks and ongoing military operations, reducing access to critical firgi floodplains that support low‑cost dry season cultivation and contributing to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Meanwhile, households in inaccessible areas of Abadam, Bama, Guzamala, Kukawa, and Marte LGAs continue to face severely limited income-earning opportunities, no humanitarian assistance, no access to dry season cultivation, and continued Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes due to ongoing insecurity.
As part of efforts to close all internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, the Borno State government resettled an estimated 3,000 IDPs in Darajamal in July 2025, with an additional 7,100 people resettled in Abbaram and Goniri communities of Bama LGA in January 2026. These highly vulnerable households were unable to cultivate during the main season in 2025 due to conflict and restricted access to land, and they are similarly constrained during the current dry season. Resettlement packages distributed by Borno State government — comprising 50 kilograms of rice and 100,000 NGN (approximately 65 USD) cash per household — distributed between July 2025 and January 2026 have already been depleted, and households will continue to rely on market purchase for their food needs through May 2026, sustaining Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
Worsening conflict across the North West and North Central continues to disrupt agricultural activities, eroding livelihoods, and forcing large numbers of households to flee their communities. In the North West, escalating attacks, abductions, cattle rustling, and deployment of IEDs along highways continue to disrupt ongoing dry season activities and severely limit income-earning opportunities. Persistent attacks and abductions have resulted in widespread asset losses, reduced ability to engage in livelihoods, and large-scale displacement. In Isa LGA of Sokoto State, sustained bandit attacks have forced the abandonment of at least 28 villages and surrounding farmland, displacing more than 17,000 people in January 2026 alone, according to IOM. A mass abduction of at least 160 people from different churches on January 18 has also been reported in Kajuru LGA of Kaduna State. The North Central region also continues to face persistent attacks and abductions, especially in Benue, Niger, and Plateau states. In early January, gunmen attacked some communities in Agwarra and Borgu LGAs of Niger State, killing more than 40 people and abducting others, including children. Many households in conflict-affected areas of the North West and North Central are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2026.
Dry season cultivation is ongoing in more stable parts of the north, and other parts of the country less affected by conflict; however, large-scale production remains constrained by the high cost of petroleum products and essential farm inputs, including agro-chemicals, fertilizers, and improved seeds. In these more secure areas, very poor households are generally able to meet their minimum food needs but continue to face livelihood protection gaps. As a result, these areas will likely experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May 2026.
Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment has shown signs of stabilization in recent months, driven by a recovery in oil production — currently targeted at 1.7-1.8 million barrels per day — and sustained expansion in the services sector, including the digital economy, finance, and telecommunications. Headline inflation eased to 15.5 percent eased to 15.5 percent in December 2025, while foreign reserves stood at 45.8 billion USD as of January 15. The NGN has also appreciated in recent weeks, closing at 1417 NGN/USD in mid-January. In the commodity market, prices of common staples continue to decline and are now approaching five-year average levels, supported by recent harvests and the government’s ongoing import waiver policy on maize, rice, and sorghum. Despite these macro-level improvements, high fuel prices and elevated costs of imported goods continue to erode purchasing power, particularly in conflict-affected regions where transport costs remain above average. Consequently, poor households’ access to food remains constrained even with relatively stable prices of locally produced staple foods.
