Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes remain widespread across conflict affected areas of the North East, driven by renewed insurgent activity, restricted mobility, and sharp increases in essential commodity costs. Persistent attacks across Borno State — including Bama, Dikwa, Gwoza, Kaga, Koduga, Kukawa, Mafa, Maiduguri, Marte, and Nganzai local government areas (LGAs) — have disrupted land preparation activities, markets, and trade routes, and triggered additional displacement. In early March, a coordinated attack on Ngoshe town in Gwoza LGA resulted in numerous civilian and military fatalities and the abduction of approximately 300 people, including women and children, while multiple IED explosions in Maiduguri killed 23 and injured over 100. In Yobe State, repeated attacks on civilians and military instillations continue to undermine livelihood activities, particularly in Geidam and Gujba LGAs. Heightened insecurity prompted temporary closures of Damaturu and Geidam markets due to fears of further attacks, disrupting market functioning and restricting trade flows. Pockets of households are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in inaccessible areas of Abadam, Guzamala, Kukawa, and Marte LGAs, where mobility and market access remain severely constrained.
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the North West are projected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) beginning in June as persistent insecurity continues to undermine livelihoods and food access. Armed banditry and kidnappings are displacing rural communities and restricting access to farmland, income-earning opportunities, and essential services. In Sokoto State’s Rabah LGA, armed bandits attacked Mallamawar Yari village, killing and abducting numerous residents. In Katsina State’s Jibia LGA, at least 15 people were killed during clashes between suspected bandits and local community guards in Falele village. In Zamfara State, an attack on Kadage community in Maradun LGA during the first week of March displaced nearly 2,000 people. These sustained attacks and abductions continue to drive largescale displacement, disrupt agricultural and livelihood activities at the onset of the main-season land preparation period, and steadily erode household coping capacity.
In the North Central Region, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are projected to deteriorate into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with the start of the June to September lean season as a fragile security environment continues to disrupt livelihoods and agricultural activities. An increasing number of attacks have been reported across Benue, Kwara, Niger, and Plateau States, with recurrent clashes between farmers and herders in Benue resulting in deaths, injuries, and repeated displacement. In Plateau State, mid-March confrontations between bandits and security forces led to both military and civilian casualties. Meanwhile, insecurity in Kwara and Niger States has escalated with IED attacks targeting bridges and key transport corridors linking the two states. Given their strategic position as transit routes between northern and southern Nigeria, these attacks continue to disrupt population movements, market activity, and ongoing land preparation for the main agricultural season, undermining livelihoods and threatening food production in one of the country’s key agricultural belts.
Nigeria continues to record some macroeconomic gains, including increased external reserves — which increased to 50.45 billion USD in early March, the highest level in 13 years — alongside greater exchange rate stability and the continued decline in headline inflation (to approximately 15.06 percent in January 2026). However, these gains have not translated to improved welfare for most households, as persistently high prices of manufactured goods, rising energy costs, and elevated transportation expenses continue to erode consumer purchasing power. Despite these pressures, prices of key staples such as maize, millet, sorghum, and rice remain below last year’s levels and the five-year average in most markets, largely due to the government’s import waiver policy; however, staple food prices are expected to trend upward in the coming months as transportation costs rise further, household stocks are depleted, and reliance on market purchases increases with the approach of the lean season.
Nigeria’s already strained economic situation has been exacerbated by the ongoing Middle East conflict, which has contributed to higher global petroleum product prices. Despite being a major exporter of crude oil and home to one of the largest single-train refineries in the world, Nigeria remains structurally reliant on imported refined fuel, though dependence has declined as domestic refining capabilities continues to expand. While fuel shortages are not currently reported, retail gasoline prices have surged countrywide, averaging 1,300-1,400 NGN per liter, increasing costs for transportation, goods, and services. Fertilizer demand typically peaks between April and July, coinciding with land preparation and planting for the main agricultural season. Fertilizer supply shortages are not anticipated given strong domestic urea production and continued imports for NPK blending; however, fertilizer prices are highly sensitive to fuel costs for transport, blending, and distribution. Rising global fuel prices are therefore expected to translate into higher fertilizer prices, limiting affordability for smallholder farmers. Elevated fuel and fertilizer costs risk reducing input use, constraining agricultural production, and contributing to higher food price inflation later in the year, further undermining household food security.
