Nigeria: iMMAP/DFS COVID-19 Situation Analysis (June 2021)


1. Executive Summary


The number of new cases decreased again by 27.8% in June dropping to 1,152 cases compared to 1,596 registered in May despite an increase of 7.6% tests from 2.1 million people in May to 2.3 million people tested in June. The country’s trajectory indicates that Nigeria is yet to experience a third wave of COVID-19.
Following the 4,024,000 doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine received by government through COVAX facility in March, the statistics indicate that as of 28th June, 3,441,146 doses have so far been utilized for the 1st and 2nd dose vaccinations, which is approximately 88% of the total AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine stock in the country (NPHCDA). The people that have been vaccinated with 1st dose are 2,265,805 while those that have received 2nd are 1,175,341, respectively. The vaccination rollout continues with the Government of Nigeria expecting to take delivery of another 41 million additional doses of COVID-19 vaccines by the end of September 2021.
The government is focusing largely on creating awareness around second dose and reopening of first dose administration along with vaccine rationalization in the states. This is to ensure that those who received their first dose of the vaccine go out and get their second dose for maximum protection. For the BAY states the number of new cases in June dropped significantly to 45, down from 121 new cases in the previous month. Therefore, despite overcrowded camps, poor hygiene and sanitation and continued population displacements there is no identified COVID-19 outbreak with the IDP population.


Travel bans for specified countries and mandatory quarantine remain in place, however many of the internal containment measures have been relaxed. Most entertainment businesses have reopened, adopting increased outdoor seating where feasible. Cinemas and night clubs have now also reopened – albeit at 50% capacity and with restricted operations after midnight. In the northeast, a recent assessment by IOM found that 72% of respondents stated there were no specific COVID-19 mitigation measures set up in their locality, 90% were living among host communities while 10% were living in camps or camp-like settings.
The NCDC collaborated with other partners to strengthen data use in response to COVID-19 by analysing existing data on COVID-19 to understand the social, economic, and political factors that influence knowledge and perception of COVID-19 among Nigerians.


With what appears to be the death of Boko Haram’s leader, Abubakar Shekau, a change in strategy by OAGs in the northeast has been reported. With ISWAP and Boko Haram announcing a peace pact, it appears that more efforts will be made to persuade the local populations to support the insurgency in contrast to the indiscriminate use of violence against civilians that has been seen in the past.
However, OAG attacks on population centers continue with 150,000 displaced in Geidam and Yunusari Local Government Areas (LGAs). In addition, humanitarian organizations in the northeast have raised concerns about the returns process, noting that many areas of return remain unsafe—including Damasak and Dikwa towns, which both experienced major NSAG attacks in April.
The escalating insecurity in the northeast operational context remains a major challenge, threatening to further shrink the humanitarian space and impede access to program sites. Illegal Vehicle Checkpoints (IVCPs) across key supply routes in the northern and southern axes of the Borno State are also hampering delivery of aid.
Finally flooding brought about by the onset of the rain season is further constraining both road and air access especially to the more remote garrison towns.


A newly developed food insecurity monitoring system for inaccessible areas indicates that communities in 4 LGAs of Borno state (Bama, Gwoza, Kukawa and Magumeri) are at high risk of experiencing IPC level 5 (famine) food insecurity. Levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) are also estimated to be at extremely critical (phase 5) levels in these areas. Illness and a lack of access to health facilities are also contributing factors to a higher morbidity risk.