Nigeria Food Security Outlook Update, November 2015

Situation Report
Originally published
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Food security Crisis continues in northeast Nigeria despite new harvests

Key Messages

  • In addition to leading to loss of life, ongoing conflict in northeast Nigeria continues to restrict livelihoods, contribute to restricted market activity, and cause significant, continuing displacement. Rural, resident households in areas worst-affected by conflict and IDPs in informal settlements continue to be the populations most impacted by the food security situation.

  • Although ongoing harvests between October and December 2015 are expected improve food availability and access, production is expected to once again this year be well below average in northeast Nigeria. Parts of western Yobe, northern Adamawa, much of Borno, as well as informal IDP settlement areas in greater Maiduguri, will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between now and March 2016.

  • Households in localized areas across the country (in parts of Adamawa, Yobe, Bauchi, Kaduna, Jigawa, Kebbi and Niger States) affected by heaving flooding during the main season are harvesting below-average production for both staple and cash crops. Affected households in these areas will likely resort to market purchase earlier than usual this consumption year as own production stocks will not carry them as far as they typically would.

  • For much of the rest of Nigeria, main season harvests are underway with generally average production expected, contributing positively to household and markets stocks. Between now and March 2016, agricultural households will generally consume own-production stocks, while other households will have good market access as prices are expected to remain average to below average. As such, much of Nigeria will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between November 2015 and March 2016.

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October.