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Nigeria Food Security Outlook Update, December 2018

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Assistance needs remain high in northeast Nigeria as the main harvest concludes

KEY MESSAGES

• The level of displacement continues to increase in Nigeria, with more than two million IDPs identified in the last IOM report from October 2018. Of those identified, there are nearly 1.85 million conflict-related IDPs in northeast Nigeria. Borno state, the epicenter of the insurgency, was hosting almost 1.5 million IDPs in October 2018. Intense attacks by insurgents and military operations have led to increased levels of displacement, vulnerability, and food assistance needs.

• Humanitarian actors continue to provide assistance, reaching almost 1.5 million people across the three northeast states in October, about 1.3 million people in Borno state alone, with food assistance. However, food assistance has declined relative to previous months. The intense Boko Hara related conflict has once again severely restricted agricultural production in 2018.

• Households in southern Yobe, northern Adamawa, and central and southern Borno worst-affected by the insurgency continue to depend on humanitarian assistance and are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3/3!) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes. There are areas that remain difficult to access by humanitarian actors, and outcomes are likely similar to or worse than in adjoining accessible areas. Additionally, there is continued concern that in a worst-case scenario, populations in currently accessible areas, who are often centered in urban areas, could become cutoff due to a shift in conflict, leading to more extreme outcomes.

• Outside of the northeast, both household and market food supplies continue to increase as the main harvest concludes across the country. Most of the country will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least May 2018. However, areas worst-affected by widespread flooding and farmer/pastoralist conflict see greater difficulty accessing basic needs will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes through May 2019.