Main season harvests came in well-below average in conflict-affected areas of northeast
Households worst-affected by conflict at the periphery of the Sambisa axis in the northeast have been unable to engage in normal livelihood activities for several consecutive seasons, and are facing large food consumption gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. These households are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity.
• There is very limited information about current outcomes in areas of the northeast that are inaccessible to humanitarian actors. Analysis of factors contributing to poor outcomes in adjacent areas of the northeast suggests that there remains an elevated risk that Famine (IPC Phase 5) outcomes could be occurring in the inaccessible areas.
• In northern Yobe State and in central and northern Borno State, some conflict-affected populations are mainly dependent on humanitarian assistance and are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3!), while others have access to both income-earning opportunities and functioning markets and remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Populations less affected by the conflict across the three states are Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
• Outside of the northeast, most poor households are engaged in typical livelihood activities and are consuming own produced food, and will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through May 2018. Exceptions include households affected by flooding, communal conflict, and localized dry spells. Affected households will resort to market purchases for food access earlier than usual, and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from February through at least May 2018.
• Household food stocks and market supplies continue to increase as the main season harvest concludes across the country. Most poor households are depending on their own production, leading to a seasonal decline in food prices in markets. Prices for most staple foods are currently lower than last year, but remain above average, particularly in conflict-affected areas of the northeast.