Nigeria Food Security Outlook, October 2018 to May 2019

Situation Report
Originally published
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Elevated food security outcomes persist again in 2018 in the northeast during the harvest season

Key Messages

  • Most of Borno, southern Yobe and northern Adamawa continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. Significant areas within these regions are difficult to access by humanitarian actors, and outcomes are likely similar to or worse than in adjoining accessible areas. Additionally, there is continued concern that in a worst-case scenario, populations in currently accessible areas, who are often centered in urban areas, could become cutoff due to a shift in conflict, leading to more extreme outcomes.

  • The government through NEMA declared national disasters in twelve states affected by the widespread flooding across the country. Almost 2 million people have been affected and over 350,000 are indicated to be in need of emergency assistance across the affected states. Worst affected areas are along the Benue and Niger floodplains.

  • The main harvest is underway across the country and harvests are generally expected to be average to above average in most areas. Exceptions are in areas affected by flooding, insurgency and communal conflicts where harvest will be below average. Rice, maize and cassava were the crops worst-affected by flooding in summer/fall 2018.

  • Outside of the northeast, most households have typical access to food and income in most areas. Most of the country will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through at least May 2018. However, areas worst-affected by widespread flooding and farmer/pastoralist conflict see greater difficulty accessing basic needs will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes through May 2019.