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Nigeria

Nigeria Food Security Outlook, June 2024 - January 2025

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Food assistance needs will remain high across northern Nigeria through January 2025

Key Messages

  • Conflict continues to drive widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Northeast, North West, and North Central Nigeria. Many years of protracted conflict in the Northeast and escalating conflict in the North West and North Central is disrupting livelihood activities, limiting access to income-generating activities, driving population displacement, and constraining food access. In inaccessible areas of the Northeast, households will likely face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes through January 2025 as they continue to have restricted mobility, reduced access to markets, and depleted coping capacity.
  • FEWS NET estimates that between 17 and 18 million people will need humanitarian assistance in the June to August 2024 lean season. Of highest concern includes the population in inaccessible areas, the displaced population in garrison towns, and the IDPs in camps in the Northeast. These are closely followed by the displaced population in the North West and North Central states.
  • The macroeconomic crisis persists, with inflation hitting a nearly 30-year high and the continued devaluation of the Nigerian naira. Households across the country face increased prices for basic necessities, while labor wages have not been able to keep up, driving widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Vulnerable households, including IDPs, who are facing multiple shocks, including conflict and the macroeconomic crisis, are worst affected.
  • Humanitarian food assistance in the Northeast reached about one million beneficiaries with about 70 percent of their caloric needs monthly. IDPs in camps are the main beneficiaries of this assistance. However, food assistance is expected to be scaled down in October after the main season harvest, even though needs will remain elevated.

Analysis in brief

Expanding conflict in northern Nigeria drives high food assistance needs

Nigeria faces significant food security challenges exacerbated by escalating conflicts, economic instability, and atypical staple food prices. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in many regions until at least early 2025, particularly in Northeast, North West, and North Central states. The conflict in the Northeast, especially in Borno State, has led to depleted food stocks, reduced purchasing power, and restricted food access for internally displaced persons (IDPs), returnees, and households in inaccessible areas. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely through January 2025 in inaccessible local government areas (LGAs) of the Northeast, notably in Abadam, Bama, Guzamala, and Marte LGAs.

In Northeast Nigeria, the hardest hit by conflict, and increasingly in North West and North Central states, many households have been displaced, have lost or abandoned their assets and have limited income opportunities. High food prices and strained social support systems worsen the situation. IDPs in Northeast camps receive about 70 percent of their monthly caloric needs through humanitarian food assistance. However, this aid is expected to scale down in October after the main harvest.

Nigeria continues to a macroeconomic crisis with persistent revenue deficits, rising inflation, and currency devaluation. Inflation hit a record 33.95 percent in May 2024, driven by high food and transportation costs. The Nigerian naira has depreciated over 90 percent year-on-year, reducing household purchasing power and limiting food access for poorer households. Consequently, staple food prices remain significantly above average, making it difficult for many households to meet basic food needs (Figure 1).

Despite some seasonal improvements in food and income access associated with crop and livestock production in October, acute food insecurity is expected to remain severe in northern Nigeria. The recent dry season harvest slightly increased food stocks for some households, but staple food prices remain significantly above average at the beginning of the lean season when households are increasingly reliant on market purchases. Livestock prices are atypically high, and labor wages, while increased, are outpaced by the depreciation of the naira. Poorer households, particularly those in conflict-affected areas, will continue to face difficulties meeting their basic food needs. Humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to increase through the June to September 2024 lean season and will remain elevated even in the post-harvest period. A scale-up in humanitarian food assistance, particularly in North West and North Central states, will be essential to address the ongoing and severe food security challenges across Nigeria, while humanitarian assistance must be sustained in the Northeast.

Learn more

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 14, 2024. Follow these links for additional information:

Food security context

Since the rise of the non-state armed group (NSAG) Boko Haram in 2009, the Northeasthas been grappling with conflict characterized by violent attacks, kidnappings, and the destruction of property. The rise of Islamic State West African Provinces (ISWAP) and Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) splinter groups has further destabilized the region. Since 2011, conflict has expanded into North West and North Central states, where armed banditry and cattle rustling have intensified significantly, further escalating decades-long tensions between farmers and herders, leading to frequent violent clashes, mass abductions, and displacement. In 2021, the conflict escalated to an unprecedented level, with record levels of violence persisting into the early parts of 2024, significantly reducing humanitarian access across many states in North West and North Central Nigeria.

Nigeria is also facing a macroeconomic crisis, including record inflation. In May 2024, the annual inflation rate reached a 28-year record high of 33.95 percent, while food inflation rose to 40.53 percent, driven by factors including currency depreciation and high transportation and import costs. In June 2023, the government lifted a long-standing fuel subsidy, leading to soaring fuel prices. This decision sharply increased the cost of goods and services, exacerbating an already challenging economic situation for many Nigerians. Economic instability is further strained by fluctuations in global oil prices, given Nigeria's dependence on oil exports. Nigeria’s inability to meet the OPEC+ monthly oil production quota has led to a substantial drop in government revenue and a decline in foreign reserves.

Multiple shocks, including protracted conflict and a macroeconomic crisis, have eroded livelihoods across Nigeria. While livelihoods vary, agriculture remains dominant for most rural households. Conflict in the north, previously a key area for surplus crop production, has disrupted agriculture and reduced yields. High inflation and economic volatility worsen these issues by making food less affordable. June, the current situation for this report, typically marks the start of the lean season with rising food prices, but the lean season has begun earlier in recent years as households deplete food stocks sooner. Insecurity limits market access and the movement of goods, isolating communities and preventing surplus food distribution even during the post-harvest period (September to January). These compounded shocks have disrupted the seasonal food availability cycles, leading to high levels of need year-round.

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