Nigeria Food Security Outlook, June 2022 to January 2023


Despite the harvest, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will likely persist in the north into 2023 due to conflict


  • Humanitarian assistance needs in Nigeria are expected to be atypically high during the June to September 2022 lean season, with the highest concentration of assistance needs in the Northeast and Northwest. These high needs are primarily driven by persistent conflict, predominately across northern Nigeria, and continued poor macroeconomic conditions. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in inaccessible areas of the Northeast, and widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across much of the north through at least September. While acute food insecurity is expected to improve with the harvest in October, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in some of the worst conflict-affected areas of the north where atypically high assistance needs are likely.

  • Overall, a relatively lower number of conflict events were reported in the Northeast during mid-2022. While the lower levels of conflict have allowed displaced households to return to their area of origin, these households, along with those who continue to be displaced, have low assets and difficulty engaging in typical livelihood activities due to the prolonged nature of the conflict. Many households are engaging in the ongoing agricultural season, and while engagement in the season is expected to be above average, households will likely still face difficulty planting at pre-conflict levels due to low income and erosion of assets. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected in these areas of the northeast through at least January 2023.

  • In the Northwest and Northcentral states, banditry, kidnapping, and insecurity persist at high levels. Farming households pay fees to access their farms, and those with livestock continue to have them looted. Additionally, there are regular robberies of communities and traders. These incidents limit economic and agricultural activities in Sokoto, Zamfara, Kaduna, Katsina, Benue, and Niger states. The high cost of agricultural inputs further limits labor and engagement in the ongoing agricultural season. Across the worst conflict-affected areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely through at least January 2023 due to low agricultural production and purchasing power.

  • Food prices remain significantly higher than average and last year due to poor macroeconomic conditions, high fuel costs, above-average market demand, and high global food prices. Annual inflation remains high, at 17.71 percent in May, while the NGN continues to depreciate. Additionally, fuel shortages and high fuel costs are driving up transportation costs. Food prices are expected to continue increasing through the start of the harvest in September. As the harvest begins, food prices are expected to somewhat decline as market demand decreases; however, due to the likely poor macroeconomic conditions and high fuel and global food prices, food prices in Nigeria are expected to remain well above average.