Nigeria Food Security Outlook - January to June 2013
Civil insecurity and floods will cause food insecurity levels to increase
• Several months after widespread flooding caused substantial population displacement and significant crop damage, flood-affected households have yet to fully recover their livelihoods. Below-average household food stocks and income levels, coupled with high food prices, will cause food insecurity levels to increase in the coming months. Areas hardest hit by the flooding, such as the states along the Niger and Benue Rivers, will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity from now through June.
• Civil insecurity relating to the Boko Haram conflict is continuing, particularly in Borno, Kano and Yobe states, displacing households and limiting crop production, market, and trade activities in conflict-affected areas. In Borno and Yobe states - the epicenter of the civil insecurity - Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity conditions will be present from January to March before evolving into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions between April to June.
• The prices of major staple cereals, such as sorghum, maize, and millet, have remained above last year's prices and their respective five-year average levels. Given below-average household and market food supplies due to flooding and civil insecurity and increasing demand for staple crops, prices are expected to increase at a faster rate than normal during the next six months, particularly starting in March.