The annual weather outlook issued by ECMWF, IRI and NIMET indicates an average rainy season in most areas throughout the country between April and September, likely resulting in a good October/November harvest.
The greatest food insecurity concerns remain in the extreme north, particularly in the northern most parts of Borno, Yobe, Jigawa states in the northeast, and also the northern most parts of Kano, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi states in the northwest. These areas were affected by the prolonged dry spells during the 2011 growing season with significant shortfalls in cereal production.
In April, off-season exports amounting to 50,000 tons of grain in mid April for the Sahelian countries and continued informal trade are likely to result in additional cereal price hikes in May/June before the lean season in the north. To prevent further cereal price increases, the GoN has banned future cereal exports.