Nigeria

Nigeria: Floods readiness and response - Operation update No. 1, DREF No. MDRNG034

Attachments

GLIDE n°: FL-2022-000271-NGA

Summary of major revisions made to emergency plan of action:

This operation was launched on 28 July, for CHF 138,230 to support early action within 2 months for forecasted floods. Based on National Meteorological Agencies (NiMet), the National Society (NS) has prioritized 15 LGAs in the 5 states of Anambra, Cross River, Kebbi, Kogi and Ondo, to reach an overall 35,000 people ahead of the floods peak season.

The operational update follows change in nature of the situation which now includes floods incidence in Jigawa and Cross River and updated forecast from NiMet showing projections of normal to below normal rainfall in the previous areas initially identified. Only Jigawa and Kebbi will experience above normal of rainfall, thus more likely to experience important floods even if flash floods risk remains possible in other areas. Indeed, this requires extension of surveillance in Kebbi until the end of the rainy season in most at risk LGA.

The changes below are included:

• Revision of geographical scope of the operation to include Jigawa State for the response while removing Ondo, Anambra, Kogi State that was initially targeted. Also, to include Kebbi state which is reported to have an increased level of rainfall with above normal rainfall.

• Overall target population is revised from 35,000 people to 18,000 people (6,000 in each state) on which 6,000 will benefit of unconditional cash assistance from Jigawa and Cross River most vulnerable.

• Strategy revised as follow:

  • Continue with NS EFAT training sessions and alert messages to the communities to ensure readiness in Kebbi.

  • Provide unconditional cash to 1,000 households (6,000 people) in Jigawa and Cross River while an overall 12,000 people will benefit from hygiene and health services: awareness campaign, sanitation activities, health/wash promotion engaging communities to 12,000 people in the two states.

• A budget increase from CHF 138,230 to CHF 245,622 to reflect the above strategy adjustments.

• To allow sufficient time to implement proposed response actions, the timeframe for this operation is extended from 2 to 5 months ending in December 2022.

A. SITUATION ANALYSIS

Projections from July to August were showing, heavy and enhanced rain forecast over the majority of West Africa. This corroborates earlier forecast issued by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), which in its Annual Flood Outlook (AFO), for the 2022 rainy season. This annual report predicted that 233 Local Government Areas (LGAs) with the Highly Probable Flood Risk States are Adamawa, Abia, Akwa-Ibom, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, CrossRiver, Delta, Eboyin, Ekiti, Edo, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa and Kaduna, others are, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba and Yobe, as well as Zamfara and FCT.

Since 20 June 2022, abundant rain fall was recorded over localized areas in southern Nigeria, with total amount of rains exceeding 100mm per day. Currently, more flash floods are jeopardized and general alerts are for the moment in yellow alert with a close monitoring of meteorological expert issuing frequent alerts since. Some floods were already recorded starting from June to early July in some parts of the area at risk, mainly in Northern localities and urban areas. Floods calendar and projections of flooding based on NIHSA, NiMet monthly climate and IFRC/NRCS risk Watch report can be divided as follows for the ongoing rainy season:

• April 2022 – following the annual outlook, rainfall starts in the country, with risk more in southern and east regions. Floods are usually expected to be high in terms of impact on the population from less to Worst (North to South part of the country). Incidence in Agriculture, livelihood and livestock and Infrastructure and the Environment; parts of 57 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in the Country fall within Highly Probable risks areas in the months of April-May.

• 13 May 2022 – The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, (NIHSA) published a media alert on their official website the forecast of highly probable flood risk areas. 223 local government areas (LGAs) concerned in 32 states of the Federation and FCT.

• May to 20 June 2022 – Rains progressively spread in North-eastern regions with different levels of rainfall. Based on past rainy season scenario and 2022 outlook, National society intensify the monitoring in the most atrisk areas; starting of close monitoring with National branches and meteorological report; information is crosschecked and shared with the IFRC Risk Watch. Some isolated minor flooding cases are recorded, mainly floods in urban areas. Some link to alerts here for Flash floods in Lagos and Yobe states.

• Early July 2022 – the July Monthly report and forecast is issued by NiMet on 24 July, experts (NiMeT), confirmed alerts from NS branches, international actors and IFRC Risk Watch.

• 28 July 2022 – DREF allocation is granted for CHF 138,230 to enhance NS readiness capacity and start early warning messages and actions to mitigate the highest floods impact generally recorded from August to October. The operation covers LGAs in Ondo (Ondo West, Akura and Ilaje LGAs), Kogi (Kogi, Inaji and Lokoja LGAs), Kebbi (Jega, Birnin Kebbi and Suru LGAs), Anambra (Ogbaru, Anambra West and Ayamelum LGAs) and Cross River (Boki, Ikom and Etangg LGAs).

• 1 - 21 August 2022 – NS starts mobilisation of branches and ensure regular alert diffusions and early warning messages through volunteers based on daily NiMET bulletin. As forecasted, The high flooding period started with successive floods recorded in some states. Most recent in Jigawa and Cross River States.

On 14 August, flood levels in some LGAs at Jigawa State reached the red alert levels due to the intensity of the torrential rainfall and caused flooding in Jigawa State affecting around 3,563 people, taking shelter in about 11 temporary camps. On 19 August 2022, similarly, Cross River State where six people were feared dead with over 400 houses and 700 farms submerged following a flood that wreaked havoc in 15 Cross River communities. The floods, which occurred because of downpour which lasted for about five hours, took over the affected communities with severe impact on livelihoods, infrastructures, and physical impacts.

This floods incidence was recorded while NRCS was implementing the early actions in the targeted states. Now that floods started, and based on the updated forecasts, the NS is adapting the plan with more response and limit readiness covering early warning conducted and readiness reinforced in Kebbi.