Attachments
As with previous elections, insecurity will remain an important issue for voters in Nigeria choosing the next president. Insecurity continues to factor in both political and security challenges, as federal and state forces struggle to rein in armed groups across the country. Over the past two weeks, Nigerian troops announced the killing of several Boko Haram militants in northeastern Nigeria, the region that is home to Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar and All Progressives Congress (APC) vice presidential candidate Kashim Shettima. Political issues over the past two weeks appear restricted to mostly campaigns and intra-party disagreements, while the first ‘debate’ between candidates took place. The severe floods that recently hit Nigeria, killing over 600 people and displacing an estimated 1.4 million, are also likely to increase pressure on local communities and escalate clashes over resources. Localized campaigns appear to have prevented a violent escalation but, nevertheless, recorded incidents between local communities and local militia groups do not seem to be abating.
Political Developments
- First Candidate Townhall: On 6 November, ARISE Television and the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) organized the first presidential townhall of the current election campaign cycle. The People’s Redemption Party (PRP – Kola Abiola), Labour Party (LP – Peter Obi), and New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP – Rabiu Kwankwaso) were represented by their presidential nominees, while the PDP sent vice presidential nominee Ifeanyi Okowa. The discussion focused on security and the economy, but was initially delayed following arguments between LP supporters and organizers who protested Okowa participation instead of the PDP’s presidential nominee. The ruling APC nominee Bola Tinubu issued a statement reaffirming his likely absence from presidential debates, drawing the ire of his rivals.
- Intra-fighting between PDP supporters: Governors Bala Mohammed of Bauchi state and Samuel Ortom of Benue state were involved in separate disagreements with their party’s presidential nominee, Atiku Abubakar. Mohammed accused Atiku of backing supporters against his re-election bid, while Ortom openly accused the PDP presidential nominee of supporting members of the Fulani ethnic group in their ongoing clashes with his constituents in Benue. The increased division between the nominee and six of the party’s governors might continue to hamper plans ahead of the coming elections.
- Kanu’s release delayed by the government: The government has refused to release Nnamdi Kanu, the leader of the secessionist Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), despite the Federal Court of Appeal’s judgment to that effect. Kanu’s supporters in the South East region protested the action last week.
- Redesigning of the Nigerian Naira: The Central Bank has announced plans to redesign the N200, N500, and N1000 notes. The economic implications of the policy have been debated, with Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed also arguing against the proposed move. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has stated that it is monitoring three governors over moves to launder cash through cash payments of salaries to workers, with other politicians also reportedly buying foreign currency to avoid being caught. The result is a subsequent fall of the Naira in the parallel market and impacts on fiscal policy.
Security Developments
- Terror Alerts: Diplomatic missions issued alerts warning citizens against traveling around the capital Abuja and evacuating non-essential personnel. The terror alerts led to heightened concerns around the city and saw some institutions close as a result. National Security Advisor Babagana Monguno and Chief of Defense Staff General Lucky Irabor dispelled concerns over the alleged terror threat, describing the alert issued by the United States and the United Kingdom as needless and irresponsible.
- Clashes over resources: Fresh conflict involving armed ethnic militias broke out in Benue and Niger states in the North Central region and Imo state in the South East region, causing several reported fatalities over the past two weeks. Many local communities were affected by the recent floods, which impacted over 3 million people across the country. There are concerns that these events could further precipitate existing conflicts among local communities.
- Militia Attacks in the North: Local militia were involved in attacks in Kaduna, Zamfara (both in North West), and Benue (North Central) over the last two weeks, which led to reported fatalities and clashes with law enforcement and soldiers. Concerns remain over the possibility of holding polls in these areas where conflict is rife and present.