ReliefWeb

Description of the disaster

In February 2015, Nigeria will be having elections, and political parties have begun their preparations across the country. Many international organizations including the United Nations (UN) are predicting violence related to the elections, which could be exacerbated by the continuing insecurity affecting the north eastern areas of Nigeria, and result in increased population movement both within the country and region. The two major political parties; the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressive Congress (APC) held their primaries during the second week of December 2014 and have chosen their presidential candidates. The PDP has retained Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan while the APC has chosen Major General Buhari (retired), a former head of state during the military rule. The others are All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Labour Party, and Peoples’ Democratic Movement (PMD).
However, there are over 30 registered political parties in Nigeria. In the last elections the contest was between the incumbent president and the current presidential candidate of the APC. Based on the previous elections, it is probable that the forthcoming elections be more contentious than those held in the past, and result in violence before, during and post the elections. It is likely that if the opposition wins the elections in 2015 violence will be sporadic while if the PDP wins violence is will be worse.

The Nigeria Red Cross Society (NRCS) has observed that since 1999 elections, there has been progression in violence and in 2015 the opposition will be stronger than the 2011. During the previous elections violence was experienced in the campaigning period, voting, at the time of counting votes and after announcement of results in various states of the Federation. According to the DMIS report of 2011, NRCS documented 452 injured, 150 dead and 65,700 Displaced. The NRCS provided assistance to 50,000 people, and 1,347 volunteers and 50 staff were deployed in 12 states that were affected. It has been noted that religious conflicts are also a major contributing factor in exacerbating the situation. In the last elections the contest was between the incumbent president and the current presidential candidate of the APC. There are also signs that some of the states that were peaceful in the previous elections are now showing serious signs of potential violence. In the 2015 elections the situation has been compounded by the on-going insurgency in the country and most especially in the north east. Having completed internal primaries, it is envisaged that the two major political parties will start serious campaigns across the country when the ban is lifted by the Independent National Electro Commission (INEC). During this period, it is critical that the NRCS is prepared to respond to any violence which may occur.