1.1 Crisis Overview
Fifteen years on, the crisis in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe (BAY states) in north-east Nigeria continues unabated. It is characterized by conflict, insecurity and widespread population displacement, driven in large part by the Boko Haram insurgency. It has destroyed critical infrastructure, disrupted agricultural livelihoods – the mainstay of the region – and hindered access to assistance and basic services in some areas, generating an acute protection crisis.
Civilian casualties have increased over recent years, following a shift from large-scale attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) on military and government facilities to predatory assaults targeting civilians. By the end of November 2024, some 411 civilians had been killed by mines and improvised explosive devices, the highest since 2020. This is the sixth-highest number globally.
There is significant population displacement, with approximately 2.3 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) recorded by the end of 2024, including an estimated 260,000 individuals who have fled to neighbouring states. Borno State hosts the majority of IDPs (1.7 million) and returnees (886,000),² reflecting its critical role in the ongoing humanitarian response. Meanwhile, Adamawa State accommodates 868,000 returnees, accounting for 41% of the total 2.1 million returnees across the BAY states.
Nigeria continues to face extensive humanitarian challenges, with an estimated 33 million people projected to experience food insecurity during the 2025 lean season. Additionally, 1.8 million children in six north-eastern and north-western states are at risk of severe acute malnutrition (SAM)– among the highest global levels according to the IPC. Climate change, combined with rapid population growth-Nigeria’s population is projected to reach 400 million by 2050 according to the World Bank - will pose a significant risk, with greater population density in flood prone areas. The impact of climate, ailing infrastructure and poor urban planning have made Nigeria one of Africa's most flood-prone countries.
Recent floods affected 34 out of 36 states, with Borno being the most severely impacted. A joint assessment of 18 states³ indicated that the floods impacted 3 million people, claiming close to 700 lives, displacing 896,000 individuals. In addition to destroying 226,000 homes, other critical infrastructure was either damaged or destroyed. Additionally, 1.3 million hectares of farmland was flooded in the middle of the harvest. Analysis suggests that due to the extent and persistence of the floods in 2024, the potential annual production losses for maize, sorghum and rice combined in the flooded areas, could be about 1.1 million tonnes. This could feed 13 million people for a year. In financial terms, the potential cereal crop losses amount to almost US $1 billion in economic losses. Beyond displacement and agricultural losses, the floods also triggered waterborne disease outbreaks, specifically cholera. Displacement into crowded emergency shelters also posed significant protection risks. Incidents of sexual and gender-based violence (GBV) against women and girls occurred in these including sexual violence, looting, and missing or separated children identified as the top protection concerns following the floods. This combination of natural disasters affecting people already rendered vulnerable by conflict further compounded protection risks and vulnerabilities.
A severe nationwide cholera outbreak due to recent flooding is also intensifying humanitarian needs, especially in the northern states of Borno, Adamawa, Jigawa, Yobe and Kano. By mid-October, over 14,000 suspected cases and 378 deaths were reported. Overcrowding in camps, lack of access to clean water and sanitation, limited health-care capacity, and IDP movements due to camp closures have worsened the situation. With 31 per cent of health facilities out of operation and ongoing conflict further straining resources, the health system is struggling to cope, amplifying the crisis for vulnerable populations.
High levels of inflation, including food inflation has impacted on the humanitarian situation. Inflation is projected to peak at 35 per cent in 2025 with a 34.8,4 per cent surge in prices reported in June 2024 alone. Many families cannot afford basic food items due to rising costs. Crop loss from flooding may also negatively impact availability of food and prices. The naira's cumulative 70 per cent loss of value against the US dollar between 2023-2024 has also driven up the cost of food imports food and agricultural inputs.
The cumulative impact of these overlapping crises increased hardship, highlighting the urgent need for integrated and targeted humanitarian and development responses led by the government, both at the state and federal level, to address the interconnected drivers of vulnerability. The 2025 people in need (PiN) estimates for the BAY states project a 2 per cent decrease from 7.9 million in 2024 to 7.8 million. Of these, 59 per cent (4.6 million) are host community members, 23 per cent (1.8 million) IDPs, and 19 per cent (1.4 million) returnees. Most of the people in need are in Borno (3.7 million), followed by Adamawa (2.1 million) then Yobe (2 million).
Disclaimer
- UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
- To learn more about OCHA's activities, please visit https://www.unocha.org/.