Attachments
FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Planting of main season maize crop underway
- Slightly below-average cereal output in 2024
- Food inflation remained at elevated level in February 2025
- About 25.1 million people acutely food insecure in the last quarter of 2024
Planting of main season maize crop underway
In some southern bimodal rainfall areas, planting operations of the main season maize crop, to be harvested between June and August 2025, are underway. In other southern and central bimodal rainfall areas, land preparation is ongoing and sowing of the 2025 cereal crops is expected to start by mid-April, while planting operations are expected to begin in May and continue through to July in northern unimodal rainfall areas.
The ongoing conflict in northern areas is expected to continue to undermine farmers’ productive capacity in 2025. Reports indicate that elevated input prices and increased difficulties in securing loans, partially due to high interest rates, are likely to constrain agricultural activities across the country.
According to the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, average to below-average total rainfall amounts are expected for 2025. A delayed onset of the rainy season is forecast in some central bimodal and across northern unimodal areas, with a likely negative impact on planting operations. Furthermore, a shorter-than-average rainy season is expected in parts of the North-East and the North-Central zones, which could hinder crops from completing their growing cycle. In addition, forecasts point to a severe dry spell in northern regions between June and August, which may affect yields.
Slightly below-average cereal output in 2024
The 2024 aggregate cereal production is estimated at about 28.5 million tonnes, similar to the 2023 level and about 3 percent below the five-year average. Planted area is estimated at below-average level, reflecting limited access to agricultural inputs due to high prices and low household purchasing power, as well as persisting conflict, which severely constrained farmers’ access to their fields. Furthermore, yields were affected by dry spells, floods and some pest outbreaks.
Food inflation remained at elevated level in February 2025
The annual food inflation rate remained high in 2024, ranging between 35.4 and 40.9 percent. In December 2024, food inflation stood at 39.8 percent, before decreasing to 26.1 percent in January 2025 and easing further to 23.5 percent in February, down from 37.9 percent a year earlier. However, it should be noted that the National Bureau of Statistics rebased the Consumer Price Index in January 2025, which included reweighting the items in the reference basket and updating the comparison period from 2009 to 2024.
About 25.1 million people acutely food insecure in the last quarter of 2024
According to the November 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, nearly 25.1 million people (12 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between October and December 2024, including over 987 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This represents a substantial deterioration compared to the same period in 2023, when about 18.6 million people (9 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. The increase in the total number of acutely food insecure people is due to several factors that include ongoing conflict, the persistent macroeconomic crisis, high food prices and the impact of floods that occurred in the second half of 2024 on local livelihoods.
Conflict continues to be a key driver of acute food insecurity, with a significant increase in the number of violent incidents and fatalities in 2024 compared to the previous year, while high levels of violence were also reported between January and March 2025. The conflict has led to the internal displacement of about 3.4 million people in the North-East, North-West and North-Central zones, and it has severely constrained the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
The persistent macroeconomic crisis has resulted in high food and non-food inflation, which, coupled with low household purchasing power, has had a negative impact on access to food across the country.
The 2024 severe floods affected approximately 1.3 million people and resulted in the displacement of 729 000 people, mostly in northern regions, exacerbating already critical levels of acute food insecurity. Concern exists for households in Borno State, whose livelihoods have been severely affected by floods as well as by the ongoing conflict.
According to early projections of the November 2024 CH analyses, about 33.2 million people are expected to be acutely food insecure during the 2025 June-to-August lean season, including nearly 1.8 million people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). Updated projections for this period are expected to be released in April 2025.
Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .
FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .
FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .