FEWS Nigeria Food Security Outlook Jan 2009 to June 2010

Situation Report
Originally published
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- Food security conditions are mixed across the country, reflecting different food and fodder production levels and disparities in food prices and income earning opportunities. Inflation rates are relatively high and rising due to high prices for meat, fish, and seafood, as well as speculation regarding fuel prices as the government prepares to deregulate unleaded fuel in January 2010.

- In the extreme north, poor household access to food will be significantly constrained in March instead of June or July in a normal year. The epicenter of food insecurity is the northern parts of the states of Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Katsina, Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi, where tightening food supplies, high food prices, fodder shortages and low income earning opportunities have started to limit faming and pastoral household access to food. By June, the number of food insecure household will increase significantly. Pastoral households will face a significant deterioration in their terms of trade, constraining their purchasing power and limiting their access to basic food Government intervention, will intervene, in the form of subsidized sale of grain will be needed to mitigate poor household food insecurity.

- Household food security is generally favorable, in the North Central from January to June, as market food supply is high and most households rely on own produced crops for food. In the South, parallel increases in the prices of gari, basic household items, and fuel without commensurate increases in wages will constrain poor households' access to food in February and March in the coastal areas (Bayelsa, Delta, and Cross Rivers). As of April, the hunger season will peak, and the prices of gari and the cost of basic staple food will experience their steepest rise. Moderate food insecurity will extend to all southern states. Cross?substitution with seasonal crops, as well as labor opportunities and remittances will keep most households from plunging into high food insecurity.