Evaluation of Nigeria WFP Country Strategic Plan 2019-2022: Terms of reference, March/2021

Manual and Guideline
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1. Background

1. These Terms of Reference (TOR) were prepared by the WFP Office of Evaluation based upon an initial document review and consultation with stakeholders.

2. The purpose of these Terms of Reference (TOR) is to provide key information to stakeholders about the evaluation, to guide the evaluation team and specify expectations during the various phases of the evaluation. The TOR are structured as follows: section 1 provides information on the context; section 2 presents the rationale, objectives, stakeholders and main users of the evaluation; section 3 presents the WFP portfolio and defines the scope of the evaluation; section 4 identifies the evaluation approach and methodology; section 5 indicates how the evaluation will be organized. The annexes provide additional information.


3. Country Strategic Plan Evaluations (CSPEs) encompass the entirety of WFP activities during a specific period. Their purpose is twofold: 1) to provide evaluation evidence and learning on WFP's performance for country-level strategic decisions, specifically for developing the next Country Strategic Plan (CSP) and 2) to provide accountability for results to WFP stakeholders. These evaluations are mandatory for all CSPs and are carried out in line with the WFP Policy on Country Strategic Plan and WFP Evaluation Policy.


General Overview

4. The Federal Republic of Nigeria (Nigeria) is located in West Africa bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west. Its southern coast is on the Gulf of Guinea in the Atlantic Ocean. It consists of 36 states, a Federal Capital Territory (FCT), with more than 250 ethnic groups.

5. Nigeria is the most populated country in Africa with over 200 million people, of which 49.3 percent is women. The majority of the population is young with 43 percent under 14 years old, with an average life expectancy of 54 years - 55 years for women, and 54 years for men. Total fertility rate in Nigeria is 5.2 and adolescent birth rate is 106, which is higher than the Sub-Saharan adolescent birth rate of 104.7. With a current population growth rate of 3.2 percent, its population is projected to grow by 30 percent between 2020 and 2030 and then double to about 400 million by 2050. About half of the population resides in urban areas.

6. With a steady economic growth between 1999 and 2014, Nigeria has become one of the fastest growing economies in Africa with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$1,645, ranked as a lower middle-income country since 2008. The pace of economic growth slowed down since 2015 due to the falling price of oil, the primary export, and entered into the recession in 2016. While growth maintained stable at 2 percent in the first half of 2019, domestic demand remains constrained by stagnating private consumption in the context of high inflation. The depreciation of the Nigerian Naira (NGN) due to a decline in national revenue, has pushed up staple food prices.

7. Despite the economic growth, 40.1 percent of the population live in poverty, with rising poverty in rural areas and the northern zones, while the situation in the southern zones has generally been improving. Development shortfalls, such as low earnings for individuals and disparities by income, gender and location, persist in Nigeria. The Gini coefficient, a measure of welfare inequality, was 43 in 2010-2017 period. Poverty and location are correlated with limited access to basic services such as nutrition, health, education, shelter, clean water and sanitation, and electricity.

8. Expansion in some economic sectors has not necessarily led to employment creation to absorb the fast-growing labor force, resulting in 23 percent of unemployment rate in 2018 with another 20 percent of the labor force underemployed. Overall, Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.534 makes Nigeria the 158th of 189 countries.

9. Nigeria has over 140,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases with 1,673 deaths, observing the 5th highest cumulative infection in Africa. Given the COVID-19 impact, the revised growth projection in 2020 was over 5 percentage points below the pre-COVID-19 forecast of 2.1 percent, which made the predicted 2020 recession at least twice as deep as that of 2015–2016. As the economy contracts and per capita incomes fall, it is projected that the pandemic leaves 5 million more Nigerians living in poverty in 2020 relative to the pre-COVID forecast.

10. Nigeria also faces multiple crises, with a protracted conflict in northeast of Nigeria, namely in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe (BAY) states, which has spread to neighboring Cameroon, Chad and Niger, and intercommunal clashes in the north-west. A total of 7.9 million people, out of a total of 13 million, in BAY states are in need of humanitarian assistance in 2020. The damages to its infrastructure and capacity to deliver social services in BAY states are estimated at US$8.9 billion. In northwest, activities of bandits in Sokoto, Kaduna, Kebbi, Niger, Zamfara and Katsina states also caused over 160,000 internal displacement, while causing about 41,000 more to flee to neighboring Niger Republic.

Access the Country Strategic Plan here.