Attachments
Continuing conflicts in border regions hinders the agricultural season's productivity
Key Messages
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Conflict-affected areas of Niger in the extreme south-east, north-west and south-central regions face acute food insecurity Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stress! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes throughout the lean season and harvest in 2023. The ongoing security crisis continues to impede households in their regular agricultural and pastoral production endeavours, while also disrupting market operations and trade flows in these regions. Therefore, the prices of basic food are steadily escalating. Overall, the need for food assistance will peak between July and September 2023. During this period, the impacts of security and economic factors on livelihoods are expected to be further exacerbated by potential flooding, as indicated by seasonal forecasts projecting average to surplus rainfall. The areas and populations of greatest concern are those of the Tillabéry, Tahoua, Diffa and Maradi regions. However, food assistance is currently sufficient
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Persistent conflict and insecurity continue to manifest through sporadic attacks and subsequent population displacements. While the overall security situation is relatively stable, the Tillabéry region continues to experience significant security tension, as evidenced by the estimated theft of approximately 100,000 cattle between 2020 and 2022, according to the regional livestock directorate. The loss of these animals in agropastoral and pastoral regions results in a substantial decline in income, as well as reduced access to milk and meat for herder households.
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The rainy season got off to a good start, with good rainfall enabling planting in farming villages. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, more than 40 percent of farming villages were able to sow in early June 2023, exceeding the proportion for 2022 and the average for the same period. Between 55 and 75 percent of villages in the Dosso and Zinder regions were able to sow. Nevertheless, the pastoral zone continues to face unfavorable rainfall conditions, resulting in a severe scarcity of pasture and water resources. These lingering effects of an extended pastoral lean season, which started early this year, will keep poor pastoral households in acute food insecurity Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes until early July, even in areas not affected by the conflict. Pastoral conditions will only see improvement after the rainy season.
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Across the country, market supplies are currently below the normal levels, primarily due to depleted stocks and disruptions in cross-border flows caused by insecurity and the restrictions imposed by Mali and Burkina Faso. This drop in the food supply on the markets, combined with the gradual increase in demand during the lean season, is keeping prices above the five-year average, which will keep most areas in acute food insecurity Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. This trend is expected to persist until the end of September, after which it will transition into the seasonal downtrend as market availability improves and demand stabilizes with the arrival of new harvests starting from October.