Attachments
Key Messages
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Due to ongoing conflict and insecurity, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from October 2024 to May 2025 in Tillabéry and Diffa, as well as in the northwest of Tahoua and southwest of Maradi. Indeed, the security crisis is causing the forced displacement of populations, leading to the loss of their food sources and livelihoods. Furthermore, in these regions, displaced poor households affected by the floods will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, although they make up less than 15 percent of the population.
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FEWS NET estimates that between 2.0 to 2.5 million people will be in need between February and May 2025. The most vulnerable population consists of poor and very poor households in areas of insecurity, displaced persons, and flood victims.
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Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in agricultural, agropastoral, and pastoral areas between October 2024 and January 2025. New harvests are expected to improve household access to food and income in agricultural and agropastoral areas. Additionally, the availability of pastures and water in pastoral areas is expected to be good, improving the body conditions, market value, and milk production of livestock, as well as food consumption and household incomes.
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Widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected between February and May 2025 in agricultural and agropastoral areas. Due to depleted stocks and very high food prices, poor households are expected to rely on markets for their food, which will reduce their purchasing power and limit their food expenditures. Additionally, due to the decrease in pastoral resources and limited access to pastures in insecure areas, livestock prices are expected to drop in pastoral areas, limiting the purchasing power of pastoral households.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 20, 2024.